Geopolitical tensions surrounding the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz since February have tightened global supply, with EIA data showing sharp inventory draws of 6.3 million b/d in Q2 2026 and Brent prices averaging near $105/bbl in May amid 11+ million b/d of shut-in production. Recent diplomatic signals of a potential U.S.-Iran agreement to resume flows have triggered sharp pullbacks, pushing WTI futures into the $74–81 range by mid-June and concentrating trader-implied probabilities on the $70–84 bands. OPEC+ production adjustments and non-OPEC supply responses add further uncertainty ahead of June contract settlement, with any confirmed reopening likely to accelerate downside moves while sustained disruptions could lift prices toward or above $84.