哈梅內伊會發推文嗎… ？

Name: 哈梅內伊會發推文嗎… ？
Start: 2026-03-15T22:53:23.341Z
End: 2026-03-23T00:00:00.000Z

地緣政治·伊朗

哈梅內伊會發推文嗎… ？

$61,756 交易量

Mar 23, 2026

3月22日

$15,653 交易量

94%

3月23日

$13,051 交易量

93%

$61,756 交易量

3月22日

$15,653 交易量

94%

3月23日

$13,051 交易量

93%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if an official X profile of Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei posts/tweets again between 12:00AM ET and 11:59PM ET on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Posts include any post, repost, or reply. The resolution source for this market are Khamenei's official X profiles: https://x.com/khamenei_ir, https://x.com/KhameneiBangla, https://x.com/az_Khamenei, https://x.com/Khamenei_fa, https://x.com/ar_Khamenei, https://x.com/Khamenei_Heb. Posts/tweets from any other account will not qualify.

已提議結果: 是

無爭議

最終結果: 是

Trader sentiment on whether Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will post on X (formerly Twitter) hinges on the consistent activity of his official English-language account @khamenei_ir, which shares statements nearly daily, particularly amid escalating Iran-Israel tensions following Tehran's October 1 missile barrage. Recent posts have addressed regional conflicts, U.S. policy, and domestic issues, with his office amplifying official positions without direct personal tweeting. No verified lull in activity exists, though account suspensions or platform restrictions remain risks. Upcoming factors include potential Israeli retaliation or UN General Assembly speeches in late September, which historically prompt posts; traders weigh this pattern against geopolitical volatility for implied probabilities.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於 Mar 21, 2026, 4:05 PM UTC

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"哈梅內伊會發推文嗎… ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "3月16日" at 100%, followed by "3月17日" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "哈梅內伊會發推文嗎… ？" has generated $61.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 15, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "哈梅內伊會發推文嗎… ？," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "哈梅內伊會發推文嗎… ？" is "3月16日" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3月17日" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "哈梅內伊會發推文嗎… ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "哈梅內伊會發推文嗎… ？." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $61.8K traded on “哈梅內伊會發推文嗎… ？,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "哈梅內伊會發推文嗎… ？," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "3月16日" in the "哈梅內伊會發推文嗎… ？" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "3月16日" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "哈梅內伊會發推文嗎… ？" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Mar 23, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "哈梅內伊會發推文嗎… ？" market has an active community of 72 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "哈梅內伊會發推文嗎… ？." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

哈梅內伊會發推文嗎… ？

哈梅內伊會發推文嗎… ？

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Frequently Asked Questions

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