Trader sentiment on Polymarket for gold futures (GC) surpassing key thresholds by March 31 hinges primarily on Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, with markets pricing in a 70% chance of no change at the recent FOMC meeting, bolstering the dollar and capping upside. Spot gold trades near $2,175/oz amid cooling inflation signals from February CPI (3.2% YoY) and robust U.S. jobs data, offsetting geopolitical safe-haven bids from Middle East tensions. Central bank purchases, led by China, provide tailwinds, but RSI overbought conditions signal potential pullback. Watch Thursday's PCE inflation release—below 0.3% MoM could lift implied probabilities above 50%, while USD index above 104 weighs on odds. Historical end-month volatility averages 1.5%, underscoring resolution risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$846,761 交易量
↑ $10,000
<1%
↑ $7,000
<1%
↑ $6,600
1%
↑ $6,400
1%
↑ $6,200
1%
↑ 6,000美元
1%
↑ $5,800
2%
↑ $5,600
3%
↑ $5,500
4%
↑ $5,400
9%
↓ 5,000美元
83%
↓ 4,900美元
61%
↓ $4,700
20%
↓ $4,500
8%
↓ 4,300美元
3%
↓ $4,000
1%
↓ $3,600
<1%
↓ $3,000
<1%
$846,761 交易量
↑ $10,000
<1%
↑ $7,000
<1%
↑ $6,600
1%
↑ $6,400
1%
↑ $6,200
1%
↑ 6,000美元
1%
↑ $5,800
2%
↑ $5,600
3%
↑ $5,500
4%
↑ $5,400
9%
↓ 5,000美元
83%
↓ 4,900美元
61%
↓ $4,700
20%
↓ $4,500
8%
↓ 4,300美元
3%
↓ $4,000
1%
↓ $3,600
<1%
↓ $3,000
<1%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
市場開放時間: Mar 2, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Polymarket for gold futures (GC) surpassing key thresholds by March 31 hinges primarily on Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, with markets pricing in a 70% chance of no change at the recent FOMC meeting, bolstering the dollar and capping upside. Spot gold trades near $2,175/oz amid cooling inflation signals from February CPI (3.2% YoY) and robust U.S. jobs data, offsetting geopolitical safe-haven bids from Middle East tensions. Central bank purchases, led by China, provide tailwinds, but RSI overbought conditions signal potential pullback. Watch Thursday's PCE inflation release—below 0.3% MoM could lift implied probabilities above 50%, while USD index above 104 weighs on odds. Historical end-month volatility averages 1.5%, underscoring resolution risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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