Polymarket traders price a modest [X]% implied probability for Gold (GC) futures hitting [target price] by March 31, driven primarily by persistent US dollar weakness and safe-haven flows amid Middle East tensions, offsetting Fed hawkishness. Spot gold holds near $2,650/oz after a 30% YTD surge fueled by central bank buying topping 1,037 tonnes last year per World Gold Council data. Key dynamics include real yields at 1.8% (10Y TIPS), supporting upside, but strong NFP prints cap gains. Watch March 12 CPI (exp. 3.1% YoY core) and March 19-20 FOMC for dot-plot shifts on 75bps 2024 cuts—traders lean bearish on dollar if softer inflation confirms. Historical EOM rallies average 2% in dovish cycles.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$846,436 交易量
↑ $10,000
<1%
↑ $7,000
<1%
↑ $6,600
1%
↑ $6,400
1%
↑ $6,200
1%
↑ 6,000美元
1%
↑ $5,800
2%
↑ $5,600
3%
↑ $5,500
4%
↑ $5,400
9%
↓ 5,000美元
83%
↓ 4,900美元
61%
↓ $4,700
19%
↓ $4,500
8%
↓ 4,300美元
3%
↓ $4,000
1%
↓ $3,600
<1%
↓ $3,000
<1%
$846,436 交易量
↑ $10,000
<1%
↑ $7,000
<1%
↑ $6,600
1%
↑ $6,400
1%
↑ $6,200
1%
↑ 6,000美元
1%
↑ $5,800
2%
↑ $5,600
3%
↑ $5,500
4%
↑ $5,400
9%
↓ 5,000美元
83%
↓ 4,900美元
61%
↓ $4,700
19%
↓ $4,500
8%
↓ 4,300美元
3%
↓ $4,000
1%
↓ $3,600
<1%
↓ $3,000
<1%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
市場開放時間: Mar 2, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a modest [X]% implied probability for Gold (GC) futures hitting [target price] by March 31, driven primarily by persistent US dollar weakness and safe-haven flows amid Middle East tensions, offsetting Fed hawkishness. Spot gold holds near $2,650/oz after a 30% YTD surge fueled by central bank buying topping 1,037 tonnes last year per World Gold Council data. Key dynamics include real yields at 1.8% (10Y TIPS), supporting upside, but strong NFP prints cap gains. Watch March 12 CPI (exp. 3.1% YoY core) and March 19-20 FOMC for dot-plot shifts on 75bps 2024 cuts—traders lean bearish on dollar if softer inflation confirms. Historical EOM rallies average 2% in dovish cycles.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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