Trader consensus favors a Trump-Xi Jinping meeting at 93% implied probability, driven by White House announcements of a state visit to Beijing on May 14-15 for trade reset and Iran war endgame talks, marking a pivotal multipolar diplomacy shift. Lula da Silva follows at 90%, reflecting Brazil's G20 hosting and prior alignment signals, while Ahmed al-Sharaa (78%), Lukashenko (75%), MBS (74%), Putin (71%), and Starmer (70%) reflect ongoing Middle East peace board negotiations, Eurasian security pacts, and NATO tensions post-Davos. Recent bilaterals with Merz (March 3), Martin (March 17), and Takaichi (March 19) resolved those submarkets early, but lower odds for Kim Jong Un (35%) and Maduro (24%) highlight escalation barriers and sanctions. G20 at Trump Doral in December looms as a multi-leader catalyst.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$296,398 交易量

習近平
93%

艾哈邁德·沙拉
55%

盧拉·達席爾瓦
74%

凱爾·斯塔默
63%

穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼
68%

弗拉基米爾·普丁
58%

亞歷山大·盧卡申科
48%

趙長鵬
36%

教宗利奧十四世
30%

金正恩
26%

尼古拉斯·馬杜羅
13%

iShowSpeed
10%

MrBeast
9%

賈伊爾·波索納洛
8%

賴清德
6%

尼克·富恩特斯
6%

尹錫悅
2%
$296,398 交易量

習近平
93%

艾哈邁德·沙拉
55%

盧拉·達席爾瓦
74%

凱爾·斯塔默
63%

穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼
68%

弗拉基米爾·普丁
58%

亞歷山大·盧卡申科
48%

趙長鵬
36%

教宗利奧十四世
30%

金正恩
26%

尼古拉斯·馬杜羅
13%

iShowSpeed
10%

MrBeast
9%

賈伊爾·波索納洛
8%

賴清德
6%

尼克·富恩特斯
6%

尹錫悅
2%
A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間: Nov 5, 2025, 4:53 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A meeting is defined as any encounter where both listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors a Trump-Xi Jinping meeting at 93% implied probability, driven by White House announcements of a state visit to Beijing on May 14-15 for trade reset and Iran war endgame talks, marking a pivotal multipolar diplomacy shift. Lula da Silva follows at 90%, reflecting Brazil's G20 hosting and prior alignment signals, while Ahmed al-Sharaa (78%), Lukashenko (75%), MBS (74%), Putin (71%), and Starmer (70%) reflect ongoing Middle East peace board negotiations, Eurasian security pacts, and NATO tensions post-Davos. Recent bilaterals with Merz (March 3), Martin (March 17), and Takaichi (March 19) resolved those submarkets early, but lower odds for Kim Jong Un (35%) and Maduro (24%) highlight escalation barriers and sanctions. G20 at Trump Doral in December looms as a multi-leader catalyst.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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