Polymarket traders have priced a 96% implied probability for WTI crude oil (CL) settling above $90 in March 2026, propelled by a sharp geopolitical risk premium amid escalating Middle East tensions, particularly US-Iran conflict disrupting Strait of Hormuz shipments and slashing IEA-projected global supply by 8 million b/d this month. WTI futures surged over 5% to $99.64 settlement on March 27, with intraday highs near $101 on March 29, outpacing modest OPEC+ production hikes of 206,000 b/d and rising US crude inventories to 443 million barrels per latest EIA data. Consensus reflects skin-in-the-game bets on sustained supply tightness, though de-escalation signals or accelerated non-OPEC output could challenge this positioning by pressuring prices below $90 before month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$90以上 95.6%
$85-$90 2.1%
80-85美元 1.1%
70至75美元 <1%
$1,250,126 交易量
$1,250,126 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
低於60美元
<1%
60至65美元
<1%
$65-$70
<1%
70至75美元
<1%
75到80美元
<1%
80-85美元
1%
$85-$90
2%
$90以上
96%
$90以上 95.6%
$85-$90 2.1%
80-85美元 1.1%
70至75美元 <1%
$1,250,126 交易量
$1,250,126 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
低於60美元
$105,625 交易量
<1%
60至65美元
$115,529 交易量
<1%
$65-$70
$196,143 交易量
<1%
70至75美元
$53,536 交易量
<1%
75到80美元
$254,643 交易量
<1%
80-85美元
$176,547 交易量
1%
$85-$90
$201,734 交易量
2%
$90以上
$146,370 交易量
96%
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Polymarket traders have priced a 96% implied probability for WTI crude oil (CL) settling above $90 in March 2026, propelled by a sharp geopolitical risk premium amid escalating Middle East tensions, particularly US-Iran conflict disrupting Strait of Hormuz shipments and slashing IEA-projected global supply by 8 million b/d this month. WTI futures surged over 5% to $99.64 settlement on March 27, with intraday highs near $101 on March 29, outpacing modest OPEC+ production hikes of 206,000 b/d and rising US crude inventories to 443 million barrels per latest EIA data. Consensus reflects skin-in-the-game bets on sustained supply tightness, though de-escalation signals or accelerated non-OPEC output could challenge this positioning by pressuring prices below $90 before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
市場開放時間： Mar 3, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
交易量
$1,250,126結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 3, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Polymarket traders have priced a 96% implied probability for WTI crude oil (CL) settling above $90 in March 2026, propelled by a sharp geopolitical risk premium amid escalating Middle East tensions, particularly US-Iran conflict disrupting Strait of Hormuz shipments and slashing IEA-projected global supply by 8 million b/d this month. WTI futures surged over 5% to $99.64 settlement on March 27, with intraday highs near $101 on March 29, outpacing modest OPEC+ production hikes of 206,000 b/d and rising US crude inventories to 443 million barrels per latest EIA data. Consensus reflects skin-in-the-game bets on sustained supply tightness, though de-escalation signals or accelerated non-OPEC output could challenge this positioning by pressuring prices below $90 before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
交易量
$1,250,126結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 3, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders have priced a 96% implied probability for WTI crude oil (CL) settling above $90 in March 2026, propelled by a sharp geopolitical risk premium amid escalating Middle East tensions, particularly US-Iran conflict disrupting Strait of Hormuz shipments and slashing IEA-projected global supply by 8 million b/d this month. WTI futures surged over 5% to $99.64 settlement on March 27, with intraday highs near $101 on March 29, outpacing modest OPEC+ production hikes of 206,000 b/d and rising US crude inventories to 443 million barrels per latest EIA data. Consensus reflects skin-in-the-game bets on sustained supply tightness, though de-escalation signals or accelerated non-OPEC output could challenge this positioning by pressuring prices below $90 before month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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