Market icon
地緣政治·歐洲

Von der Leyen在2026年擔任歐盟委員會主席？

Market icon
地緣政治·歐洲

Von der Leyen在2026年擔任歐盟委員會主席？

是

16% 機率
Polymarket

$13,284 交易量

是

16% 機率
Polymarket

$13,284 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of von der Leyen's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Commission and the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ursula von der Leyen's secure second term as European Commission President, running through 2029 after her December 2024 investiture and July 2024 parliamentary election, underpins the 84.5% trader consensus against her departure in 2026, reflecting the high bar for removal via a two-thirds European Parliament vote of no confidence backed by a simple majority of European Council members. Recent stability includes her Commission's survival of a January 2026 confidence motion amid Mercosur trade deal clashes and ongoing diplomatic initiatives, such as the EU-Australia pact sealed during her late March visit. While March controversies over her rules-based order comments sparked backlash and reports of tensions with EU diplomat Kaja Kallas, these have not escalated into institutional threats, with Kallas downplaying rivalry as of early April. Absent major scandals or policy reversals, traders see limited catalysts for early exit before mid-term.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of von der Leyen's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Commission and the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$13,284
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 16, 2026, 12:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of von der Leyen's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Commission and the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of von der Leyen's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Commission and the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ursula von der Leyen's secure second term as European Commission President, running through 2029 after her December 2024 investiture and July 2024 parliamentary election, underpins the 84.5% trader consensus against her departure in 2026, reflecting the high bar for removal via a two-thirds European Parliament vote of no confidence backed by a simple majority of European Council members. Recent stability includes her Commission's survival of a January 2026 confidence motion amid Mercosur trade deal clashes and ongoing diplomatic initiatives, such as the EU-Australia pact sealed during her late March visit. While March controversies over her rules-based order comments sparked backlash and reports of tensions with EU diplomat Kaja Kallas, these have not escalated into institutional threats, with Kallas downplaying rivalry as of early April. Absent major scandals or policy reversals, traders see limited catalysts for early exit before mid-term.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of von der Leyen's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Commission and the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$13,284
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 16, 2026, 12:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ursula von der Leyen ceases to be the President of the European Commission for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of von der Leyen's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Commission and the European Union, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Von der Leyen在2026年擔任歐盟委員會主席？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "馮德萊恩將於2026年卸任歐盟委員會主席？" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Von der Leyen在2026年擔任歐盟委員會主席？" has generated $13.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Von der Leyen在2026年擔任歐盟委員會主席？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Von der Leyen在2026年擔任歐盟委員會主席？" is "馮德萊恩將於2026年卸任歐盟委員會主席？" at 16%, meaning the market assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Von der Leyen在2026年擔任歐盟委員會主席？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.