Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a tight contest for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with market-implied probabilities split evenly at 32.5% apiece for 0.5–0.9% and 1.5–1.9% bins, underscoring uncertainty amid robust semiconductor exports offsetting softer domestic demand. February's export surge—chip shipments up 160% year-over-year to a record—bolstered higher-range odds, aligning with Bank of Korea's upgraded full-year 2026 growth forecast to 2.0% from 1.8%, while January's 1.3% month-on-month industrial production drop and gradual consumption recovery temper expectations below 1%. Manufacturing PMI expansions through March signal rebound potential, but global trade risks loom; watch BoK's advance Q1 estimate on April 23 for resolution catalyst.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於2.0–2.4% 31%
2.5%+ 15%
1.0–1.4% 11.0%
<0% 4.3%
NEW
NEW
Apr 23, 2026
<0%
15%
0.0–0.4%
3%
0.5–0.9%
32%
1.0–1.4%
11%
1.5–1.9%
33%
2.0–2.4%
25%
2.5%+
14%
2.0–2.4% 31%
2.5%+ 15%
1.0–1.4% 11.0%
<0% 4.3%
NEW
NEW
Apr 23, 2026
<0%
$0 交易量
15%
0.0–0.4%
$0 交易量
3%
0.5–0.9%
$0 交易量
32%
1.0–1.4%
$0 交易量
11%
1.5–1.9%
$267 交易量
33%
2.0–2.4%
$0 交易量
25%
2.5%+
$6,175 交易量
14%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a tight contest for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with market-implied probabilities split evenly at 32.5% apiece for 0.5–0.9% and 1.5–1.9% bins, underscoring uncertainty amid robust semiconductor exports offsetting softer domestic demand. February's export surge—chip shipments up 160% year-over-year to a record—bolstered higher-range odds, aligning with Bank of Korea's upgraded full-year 2026 growth forecast to 2.0% from 1.8%, while January's 1.3% month-on-month industrial production drop and gradual consumption recovery temper expectations below 1%. Manufacturing PMI expansions through March signal rebound potential, but global trade risks loom; watch BoK's advance Q1 estimate on April 23 for resolution catalyst.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
市場開放時間： Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
交易量
$6,442結束日期
Apr 23, 2026市場開放時間
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a tight contest for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with market-implied probabilities split evenly at 32.5% apiece for 0.5–0.9% and 1.5–1.9% bins, underscoring uncertainty amid robust semiconductor exports offsetting softer domestic demand. February's export surge—chip shipments up 160% year-over-year to a record—bolstered higher-range odds, aligning with Bank of Korea's upgraded full-year 2026 growth forecast to 2.0% from 1.8%, while January's 1.3% month-on-month industrial production drop and gradual consumption recovery temper expectations below 1%. Manufacturing PMI expansions through March signal rebound potential, but global trade risks loom; watch BoK's advance Q1 estimate on April 23 for resolution catalyst.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the first quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on April 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
交易量
$6,442結束日期
Apr 23, 2026市場開放時間
Jan 29, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket reflects a tight contest for South Korea's Q1 2026 GDP growth, with market-implied probabilities split evenly at 32.5% apiece for 0.5–0.9% and 1.5–1.9% bins, underscoring uncertainty amid robust semiconductor exports offsetting softer domestic demand. February's export surge—chip shipments up 160% year-over-year to a record—bolstered higher-range odds, aligning with Bank of Korea's upgraded full-year 2026 growth forecast to 2.0% from 1.8%, while January's 1.3% month-on-month industrial production drop and gradual consumption recovery temper expectations below 1%. Manufacturing PMI expansions through March signal rebound potential, but global trade risks loom; watch BoK's advance Q1 estimate on April 23 for resolution catalyst.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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