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冥王星在6月30日之前重新分類為一顆行星？

Market icon

冥王星在6月30日之前重新分類為一顆行星？

是

7% 機率
Polymarket

$16,609 交易量

是

7% 機率
Polymarket

$16,609 交易量

Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify. This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.Trader consensus strongly favors no reclassification of Pluto as a planet by June 30, with 93.5% implied probability on "No," reflecting the enduring authority of the International Astronomical Union's (IAU) 2006 definition requiring a body to clear its orbital neighborhood—a criterion Pluto fails amid Kuiper Belt objects. Recent comments from NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, responding to public pleas and alluding to exploring a reversal, have generated media buzz but lack procedural weight, as the IAU controls planetary nomenclature and confirms no formal discussions. Absent an extraordinary IAU vote or general assembly—none scheduled before resolution—odds remain firm; a shift would demand rapid scientific consensus overhaul, historically rare for such precedents.

Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.

This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.
交易量
$16,609
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Apr 9, 2026, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify. This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.
Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify. This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.Trader consensus strongly favors no reclassification of Pluto as a planet by June 30, with 93.5% implied probability on "No," reflecting the enduring authority of the International Astronomical Union's (IAU) 2006 definition requiring a body to clear its orbital neighborhood—a criterion Pluto fails amid Kuiper Belt objects. Recent comments from NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, responding to public pleas and alluding to exploring a reversal, have generated media buzz but lack procedural weight, as the IAU controls planetary nomenclature and confirms no formal discussions. Absent an extraordinary IAU vote or general assembly—none scheduled before resolution—odds remain firm; a shift would demand rapid scientific consensus overhaul, historically rare for such precedents.

Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify.

This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.
交易量
$16,609
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Apr 9, 2026, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Pluto is currently classified as a dwarf planet by the International Astronomical Union. NASA administrator Jared Isaacman has urged Donald Trump to declare Pluto a planet again. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pluto is declared a planet by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying declaration may be made by the International Astronomical Union or by Donald Trump, but must explicitly state that Pluto's status is that of a planet. Statements reinforcing Pluto's dwarf planet status or statements indicating that its classification may be reconsidered will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. Statements indicating intent to reclassify Pluto as a planet will count towards this market's resolution only if they are made without qualifiers (e.g., "Pluto will be reclassified as a planet if it sufficiently clears its orbit" would not count). Executive orders declaring Pluto's status as a planet will qualify. This market's resolution source will be statements from the International Astronomical Union, Donald Trump, or any official White House legal or social media representative will qualify.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"冥王星在6月30日之前重新分類為一顆行星？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "冥王星會在6月30日前重新被歸類為行星嗎？" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 7¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 7% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "冥王星在6月30日之前重新分類為一顆行星？" has generated $16.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "冥王星在6月30日之前重新分類為一顆行星？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "冥王星在6月30日之前重新分類為一顆行星？" is "冥王星會在6月30日前重新被歸類為行星嗎？" at just 7%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "冥王星在6月30日之前重新分類為一顆行星？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.