Polymarket's trader consensus reflects a razor-thin lead for OpenAI's IPO closing market cap in the 750B–1T range (37.5%) over no listing by December 31, 2027 (30.5%), driven by Q4 2026 preparations including hires like former DocuSign CFO Cynthia Gaylor for investor relations and a pivot to high-margin enterprise productivity tools after shuttering costly Sora. Surging $25 billion annualized revenue underscores growth, but $14 billion projected 2026 losses, reset $600 billion compute targets through 2030, and intensifying competition from Anthropic and Google create swing risks around valuation multiples—currently 28–30x forward revenue on secondary trades—and execution ahead of potential S-1 filing. Upcoming enterprise contract wins and broader AI risk appetite will determine resolution direction.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於1.5兆以上 27%
2027年12月31日前不進行首次公開募股 22%
1 兆–1.25 兆 17%
低於5000億 7%
$13,675 交易量
$13,675 交易量
Dec 31, 2027
低於5000億
7%
5,000–7,500 億
-
7,500億–1兆
38%
1 兆–1.25 兆
17%
1.25兆–1.5兆
16%
1.5兆以上
27%
2027年12月31日前不進行首次公開募股
31%
1.5兆以上 27%
2027年12月31日前不進行首次公開募股 22%
1 兆–1.25 兆 17%
低於5000億 7%
$13,675 交易量
$13,675 交易量
Dec 31, 2027
低於5000億
$0 交易量
7%
5,000–7,500 億
$0 交易量
-
7,500億–1兆
$37 交易量
38%
1 兆–1.25 兆
$2,790 交易量
17%
1.25兆–1.5兆
$105 交易量
16%
1.5兆以上
$0 交易量
27%
2027年12月31日前不進行首次公開募股
$10,742 交易量
31%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Polymarket's trader consensus reflects a razor-thin lead for OpenAI's IPO closing market cap in the 750B–1T range (37.5%) over no listing by December 31, 2027 (30.5%), driven by Q4 2026 preparations including hires like former DocuSign CFO Cynthia Gaylor for investor relations and a pivot to high-margin enterprise productivity tools after shuttering costly Sora. Surging $25 billion annualized revenue underscores growth, but $14 billion projected 2026 losses, reset $600 billion compute targets through 2030, and intensifying competition from Anthropic and Google create swing risks around valuation multiples—currently 28–30x forward revenue on secondary trades—and execution ahead of potential S-1 filing. Upcoming enterprise contract wins and broader AI risk appetite will determine resolution direction.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市場開放時間： Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
交易量
$13,675結束日期
Dec 31, 2027市場開放時間
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Polymarket's trader consensus reflects a razor-thin lead for OpenAI's IPO closing market cap in the 750B–1T range (37.5%) over no listing by December 31, 2027 (30.5%), driven by Q4 2026 preparations including hires like former DocuSign CFO Cynthia Gaylor for investor relations and a pivot to high-margin enterprise productivity tools after shuttering costly Sora. Surging $25 billion annualized revenue underscores growth, but $14 billion projected 2026 losses, reset $600 billion compute targets through 2030, and intensifying competition from Anthropic and Google create swing risks around valuation multiples—currently 28–30x forward revenue on secondary trades—and execution ahead of potential S-1 filing. Upcoming enterprise contract wins and broader AI risk appetite will determine resolution direction.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
交易量
$13,675結束日期
Dec 31, 2027市場開放時間
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket's trader consensus reflects a razor-thin lead for OpenAI's IPO closing market cap in the 750B–1T range (37.5%) over no listing by December 31, 2027 (30.5%), driven by Q4 2026 preparations including hires like former DocuSign CFO Cynthia Gaylor for investor relations and a pivot to high-margin enterprise productivity tools after shuttering costly Sora. Surging $25 billion annualized revenue underscores growth, but $14 billion projected 2026 losses, reset $600 billion compute targets through 2030, and intensifying competition from Anthropic and Google create swing risks around valuation multiples—currently 28–30x forward revenue on secondary trades—and execution ahead of potential S-1 filing. Upcoming enterprise contract wins and broader AI risk appetite will determine resolution direction.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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