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在颶風季節之前命名風暴形式？

Market icon

在颶風季節之前命名風暴形式？

5月 31

5月 31

是

44% 機率
Polymarket

$329,512 交易量

是

44% 機率
Polymarket

$329,512 交易量

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30. This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms. If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus favors no named storm forming before the June 1 start of the Atlantic hurricane season, with "No" at 59% implied probability, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) April 2 Tropical Weather Discussion confirming no tropical cyclones or disturbances in the basin and no expected development over the next week. Cool sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for genesis, combined with strong vertical wind shear, suppress early activity, aligning with historical patterns where pre-June 1 named storms have occurred fewer than 20 times since 1851. Neutral ENSO conditions persist, but NHC outlooks resume May 15, when warming trends could introduce uncertainty ahead of resolution.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.

If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
交易量
$329,512
結束日期
2026-05-31
市場開放時間
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30. This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms. If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30. This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms. If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus favors no named storm forming before the June 1 start of the Atlantic hurricane season, with "No" at 59% implied probability, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) April 2 Tropical Weather Discussion confirming no tropical cyclones or disturbances in the basin and no expected development over the next week. Cool sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for genesis, combined with strong vertical wind shear, suppress early activity, aligning with historical patterns where pre-June 1 named storms have occurred fewer than 20 times since 1851. Neutral ENSO conditions persist, but NHC outlooks resume May 15, when warming trends could introduce uncertainty ahead of resolution.

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.

If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
交易量
$329,512
結束日期
2026-05-31
市場開放時間
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30. This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms. If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"在颶風季節之前命名風暴形式？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "命名風暴在颶風季節開始前形成？" at 44%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "在颶風季節之前命名風暴形式？" has generated $329.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "在颶風季節之前命名風暴形式？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "在颶風季節之前命名風暴形式？" is "命名風暴在颶風季節開始前形成？" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "在颶風季節之前命名風暴形式？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.