Traders' consensus favors a minimum Arctic sea ice extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer at 36.5% implied probability, driven primarily by the record-low winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers reached on March 15, 2026—tying 2025's extent per National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) observations—and the lowest-ever March sea ice volume. These conditions signal a thin, vulnerable ice pack entering the melt season, exacerbated by NOAA's forecast of an 80% chance for above-average Arctic summer temperatures. Historical trends show low winter extents often precede reduced September minima, though model ensembles from the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) highlight uncertainty from variable weather patterns; initial spring outlooks expected in May could refine probabilities further.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於今年夏天北極海冰範圍最小？
今年夏天北極海冰範圍最小？
少於400萬平方公里 36%
400萬至420萬平方公里 15.4%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里 13.0%
440-460萬平方公里 10.2%
$28,895 交易量
$28,895 交易量
2026-10-01
少於400萬平方公里
36%
400萬至420萬平方公里
15%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里
13%
440-460萬平方公里
14%
4.6-4.8百萬平方公里
6%
480-500萬平方公里
2%
500萬平方公里以上
3%
少於400萬平方公里 36%
400萬至420萬平方公里 15.4%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里 13.0%
440-460萬平方公里 10.2%
$28,895 交易量
$28,895 交易量
2026-10-01
少於400萬平方公里
$23,526 交易量
36%
400萬至420萬平方公里
$1,662 交易量
15%
4.2-4.4萬平方公里
$661 交易量
13%
440-460萬平方公里
$723 交易量
14%
4.6-4.8百萬平方公里
$1,194 交易量
6%
480-500萬平方公里
$556 交易量
2%
500萬平方公里以上
$573 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Traders' consensus favors a minimum Arctic sea ice extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer at 36.5% implied probability, driven primarily by the record-low winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers reached on March 15, 2026—tying 2025's extent per National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) observations—and the lowest-ever March sea ice volume. These conditions signal a thin, vulnerable ice pack entering the melt season, exacerbated by NOAA's forecast of an 80% chance for above-average Arctic summer temperatures. Historical trends show low winter extents often precede reduced September minima, though model ensembles from the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) highlight uncertainty from variable weather patterns; initial spring outlooks expected in May could refine probabilities further.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
市場開放時間： Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
交易量
$28,895結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Traders' consensus favors a minimum Arctic sea ice extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer at 36.5% implied probability, driven primarily by the record-low winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers reached on March 15, 2026—tying 2025's extent per National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) observations—and the lowest-ever March sea ice volume. These conditions signal a thin, vulnerable ice pack entering the melt season, exacerbated by NOAA's forecast of an 80% chance for above-average Arctic summer temperatures. Historical trends show low winter extents often precede reduced September minima, though model ensembles from the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) highlight uncertainty from variable weather patterns; initial spring outlooks expected in May could refine probabilities further.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$28,895結束日期
2026-10-01市場開放時間
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders' consensus favors a minimum Arctic sea ice extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer at 36.5% implied probability, driven primarily by the record-low winter maximum of 14.29 million square kilometers reached on March 15, 2026—tying 2025's extent per National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) observations—and the lowest-ever March sea ice volume. These conditions signal a thin, vulnerable ice pack entering the melt season, exacerbated by NOAA's forecast of an 80% chance for above-average Arctic summer temperatures. Historical trends show low winter extents often precede reduced September minima, though model ensembles from the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) highlight uncertainty from variable weather patterns; initial spring outlooks expected in May could refine probabilities further.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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