Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.3% implied probability to March 2026 US CPI year-over-year inflation at ≥2.8%, driven primarily by a sharp oil price surge from escalating US-Iran conflict, with nowcasts signaling outsized monthly headline gains—Cleveland Fed at 0.76% MoM and Bloomberg trackers at 0.96% versus street estimates near 0.3%. This dynamic is amplified by base effects from subdued March 2025 levels, following February's steady 2.4% YoY reading amid resilient labor markets and sticky services inflation. FOMC's March projections modestly raised 2026 inflation outlooks, aligning with trader sentiment. Realistic challenges include moderated energy passthrough or downward revisions, ahead of the April 10 BLS release.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於≥2.8% 98.4%
≤2.0% <1%
2.6% <1%
2.7% <1%
$2,987,400 交易量
$2,987,400 交易量
≤2.0%
1%
2.1%
<1%
2.2%
<1%
2.3%
<1%
2.4%
<1%
2.5%
<1%
2.6%
<1%
2.7%
<1%
≥2.8%
98%
≥2.8% 98.4%
≤2.0% <1%
2.6% <1%
2.7% <1%
$2,987,400 交易量
$2,987,400 交易量
≤2.0%
1%
2.1%
<1%
2.2%
<1%
2.3%
<1%
2.4%
<1%
2.5%
<1%
2.6%
<1%
2.7%
<1%
≥2.8%
98%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
市場開放時間: Feb 13, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98.3% implied probability to March 2026 US CPI year-over-year inflation at ≥2.8%, driven primarily by a sharp oil price surge from escalating US-Iran conflict, with nowcasts signaling outsized monthly headline gains—Cleveland Fed at 0.76% MoM and Bloomberg trackers at 0.96% versus street estimates near 0.3%. This dynamic is amplified by base effects from subdued March 2025 levels, following February's steady 2.4% YoY reading amid resilient labor markets and sticky services inflation. FOMC's March projections modestly raised 2026 inflation outlooks, aligning with trader sentiment. Realistic challenges include moderated energy passthrough or downward revisions, ahead of the April 10 BLS release.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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