Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race between 3.3% (38.1% implied probability) and ≥3.4% (37.6%) for March 2026 CPI year-over-year headline inflation, reflecting heightened uncertainty over energy price pass-through amid escalating Middle East tensions, particularly the Iran conflict. February's CPI held steady at 2.4% YoY—matching expectations with core at 2.5%—but surging gasoline prices (from ~$3 to $3.80 per gallon) are poised to reverse prior disinflationary tailwinds, alongside sticky core goods inflation in electronics. Consumer inflation expectations spiked to near 6% in March per Conference Board data, amplifying Fed concerns over persistent pressures ahead of the April 10 BLS release, where the exact oil shock magnitude will resolve positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於3.3% 38.1%
≥3.4% 37.2%
3.2% 19%
3.1% 4.5%
$898,427 交易量
$898,427 交易量
不超過2.6%
1%
2.7%
<1%
2.8%
1%
2.9%
1%
3.0%
1%
3.1%
5%
3.2%
19%
3.3%
38%
≥3.4%
37%
3.3% 38.1%
≥3.4% 37.2%
3.2% 19%
3.1% 4.5%
$898,427 交易量
$898,427 交易量
不超過2.6%
1%
2.7%
<1%
2.8%
1%
2.9%
1%
3.0%
1%
3.1%
5%
3.2%
19%
3.3%
38%
≥3.4%
37%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
市場開放時間: Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in March 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a tight race between 3.3% (38.1% implied probability) and ≥3.4% (37.6%) for March 2026 CPI year-over-year headline inflation, reflecting heightened uncertainty over energy price pass-through amid escalating Middle East tensions, particularly the Iran conflict. February's CPI held steady at 2.4% YoY—matching expectations with core at 2.5%—but surging gasoline prices (from ~$3 to $3.80 per gallon) are poised to reverse prior disinflationary tailwinds, alongside sticky core goods inflation in electronics. Consumer inflation expectations spiked to near 6% in March per Conference Board data, amplifying Fed concerns over persistent pressures ahead of the April 10 BLS release, where the exact oil shock magnitude will resolve positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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