Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 14°C at 55% implied probability for London's highest temperature on April 1, driven by the latest Met Office forecast projecting a maximum of 15°C amid partly cloudy to overcast skies and light northerly winds (3-8 mph gusts), which limit solar heating. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models clusters outcomes at 13-15°C, aligning with early April climatology where historical highs average around 13°C at sites like London City Airport (market resolution source via Wunderground). Recent observations show morning starts near 10°C, with peak expected 2-5pm; minor shower risks later add uncertainty, potentially capping warmth below 16°C. Updated hourly data from the Met Office will refine trajectories through afternoon.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in London on April 1?
Highest temperature in London on April 1?
14°C 56%
15°C 39%
16°C 3.6%
13°C 2.5%
$183,415 交易量
$183,415 交易量
12°C
<1%
13°C
3%
14°C
56%
15°C
39%
16°C
4%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
14°C 56%
15°C 39%
16°C 3.6%
13°C 2.5%
$183,415 交易量
$183,415 交易量
12°C
<1%
13°C
3%
14°C
56%
15°C
39%
16°C
4%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 29, 2026, 3:40 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 14°C at 55% implied probability for London's highest temperature on April 1, driven by the latest Met Office forecast projecting a maximum of 15°C amid partly cloudy to overcast skies and light northerly winds (3-8 mph gusts), which limit solar heating. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS models clusters outcomes at 13-15°C, aligning with early April climatology where historical highs average around 13°C at sites like London City Airport (market resolution source via Wunderground). Recent observations show morning starts near 10°C, with peak expected 2-5pm; minor shower risks later add uncertainty, potentially capping warmth below 16°C. Updated hourly data from the Met Office will refine trajectories through afternoon.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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