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地緣政治·區域溢出效應

哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）在… ？

Market icon
地緣政治·區域溢出效應

哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）在… ？

$154,456 交易量

2026-06-30
Polymarket

$154,456 交易量

Polymarket

6月30日

$154,456 交易量

6%

12月31日

$0 交易量

16%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa continues as Bahrain's de facto leader, with recent public engagements—including a April 9 meeting with the UK Prime Minister and an April 14 session with the Bahrain Chamber board—signaling robust health and authority amid Gulf tensions with Iran. Early March rumors of his flight, tied to protests over a detainee's death in custody, proved unfounded, as confirmed by his subsequent diplomatic activities and royal decrees. Traders reflect this stability in low odds (7% Yes by June 30), citing Al Khalifa dynasty control, Crown Prince Salman's prime ministerial role, and backing from Saudi Arabia and UAE; year-end pricing at 25% factors in the monarch's age (76) and potential escalation or health events, with no scheduled succession triggers.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.

An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$154,456
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Mar 4, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa continues as Bahrain's de facto leader, with recent public engagements—including a April 9 meeting with the UK Prime Minister and an April 14 session with the Bahrain Chamber board—signaling robust health and authority amid Gulf tensions with Iran. Early March rumors of his flight, tied to protests over a detainee's death in custody, proved unfounded, as confirmed by his subsequent diplomatic activities and royal decrees. Traders reflect this stability in low odds (7% Yes by June 30), citing Al Khalifa dynasty control, Crown Prince Salman's prime ministerial role, and backing from Saudi Arabia and UAE; year-end pricing at 25% factors in the monarch's age (76) and potential escalation or health events, with no scheduled succession triggers.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.

An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$154,456
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Mar 4, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）在… ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "12月31日" at 16%, followed by "6月30日" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）在… ？" has generated $154.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）在… ？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）在… ？" is "12月31日" at 16%, meaning the market assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "6月30日" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）在… ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.