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地緣政治·區域溢出效應

哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）出任巴林領導人

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地緣政治·區域溢出效應

哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）出任巴林領導人

是

10% 機率
Polymarket

$121,901 交易量

是

10% 機率
Polymarket

$121,901 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa remains firmly in place as Bahrain's ruler, with traders pricing a 90% chance he retains leadership through June 2026, reflecting the absence of any verified abdication, removal, or succession signals amid regional volatility. Early March rumors of the monarch fleeing amid protests—fueled by unconfirmed social media claims tied to US-Iran tensions—quickly dissipated as he resumed public duties, including diplomatic calls with leaders like India's Narendra Modi and Pakistan's Shehbaz Sharif, and visits to Iranian attack victims on March 25 alongside Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa. Recent dissent over a detainee's March 27 death in custody has sparked "down with the king" chants but shown no momentum for regime change, while Bahrain maintains stability despite Gulf escalations. Late developments like health events or intensified protests could shift odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.

An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$121,901
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Mar 4, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa remains firmly in place as Bahrain's ruler, with traders pricing a 90% chance he retains leadership through June 2026, reflecting the absence of any verified abdication, removal, or succession signals amid regional volatility. Early March rumors of the monarch fleeing amid protests—fueled by unconfirmed social media claims tied to US-Iran tensions—quickly dissipated as he resumed public duties, including diplomatic calls with leaders like India's Narendra Modi and Pakistan's Shehbaz Sharif, and visits to Iranian attack victims on March 25 alongside Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa. Recent dissent over a detainee's March 27 death in custody has sparked "down with the king" chants but shown no momentum for regime change, while Bahrain maintains stability despite Gulf escalations. Late developments like health events or intensified protests could shift odds.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.

An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$121,901
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Mar 4, 2026, 1:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）出任巴林領導人" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法不再是巴林的領導人嗎？" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 10¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）出任巴林領導人" has generated $121.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）出任巴林領導人," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）出任巴林領導人" is "哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法不再是巴林的領導人嗎？" at 10%, meaning the market assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "哈馬德·本·伊薩·阿勒哈利法（ Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa ）出任巴林領導人" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.