Market icon
經濟艙·GDP

2026年歐元區年度GDP增長

Market icon
經濟艙·GDP

2026年歐元區年度GDP增長

Jan 31, 2027

Jan 31, 2027

1.0-2.0% 52%

5.0-6.0% 26.5%

低於0% 23.5%

2.0-3.0% 18%

Polymarket
NEW

1.0-2.0% 52%

5.0-6.0% 26.5%

低於0% 23.5%

2.0-3.0% 18%

Polymarket
NEW

低於0%

$0 交易量

24%

0-1.0%

$0 交易量

22%

1.0-2.0%

$0 交易量

33%

2.0-3.0%

$0 交易量

18%

3.0-4.0%

$0 交易量

21%

4.0-5.0%

$1,306 交易量

19%

5.0-6.0%

$0 交易量

26%

6.0-7.0%

$0 交易量

25%

7.0%以上

$0 交易量

30%

This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027. The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price Eurozone annual GDP growth for 2026 in the 1.0-2.0% bin at a leading 32.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 7.0%+ at 29.9%, reflecting split sentiment amid ECB staff March projections highlighting 2025 resilience (Q4 GDP +0.3% quarter-on-quarter) but tempered by OECD's recent downgrade due to Middle East-driven energy price surges and U.S. tariff threats shaving up to 0.5 percentage points off growth. Consensus forecasts cluster at 1.1-1.3% from EY, Conference Board, and SPF, yet high-growth outcomes draw support from potential German fiscal stimulus adding 0.2 points area-wide and prior upward revisions. Key swing factors include April 30 Q1 flash GDP and escalating trade/geopolitical risks, underscoring crowded uncertainty.

Polymarket traders price Eurozone annual GDP growth for 2026 in the 1.0-2.0% bin at a leading 32.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 7.0%+ at 29.9%, reflecting split sentiment amid ECB staff March projections highlighting 2025 resilience (Q4 GDP +0.3% quarter-on-quarter) but tempered by OECD's recent downgrade due to Middle East-driven energy price surges and U.S. tariff threats shaving up to 0.5 percentage points off growth. Consensus forecasts cluster at 1.1-1.3% from EY, Conference Board, and SPF, yet high-growth outcomes draw support from potential German fiscal stimulus adding 0.2 points area-wide and prior upward revisions. Key swing factors include April 30 Q1 flash GDP and escalating trade/geopolitical risks, underscoring crowded uncertainty.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027. The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price Eurozone annual GDP growth for 2026 in the 1.0-2.0% bin at a leading 32.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 7.0%+ at 29.9%, reflecting split sentiment amid ECB staff March projections highlighting 2025 resilience (Q4 GDP +0.3% quarter-on-quarter) but tempered by OECD's recent downgrade due to Middle East-driven energy price surges and U.S. tariff threats shaving up to 0.5 percentage points off growth. Consensus forecasts cluster at 1.1-1.3% from EY, Conference Board, and SPF, yet high-growth outcomes draw support from potential German fiscal stimulus adding 0.2 points area-wide and prior upward revisions. Key swing factors include April 30 Q1 flash GDP and escalating trade/geopolitical risks, underscoring crowded uncertainty.

Polymarket traders price Eurozone annual GDP growth for 2026 in the 1.0-2.0% bin at a leading 32.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 7.0%+ at 29.9%, reflecting split sentiment amid ECB staff March projections highlighting 2025 resilience (Q4 GDP +0.3% quarter-on-quarter) but tempered by OECD's recent downgrade due to Middle East-driven energy price surges and U.S. tariff threats shaving up to 0.5 percentage points off growth. Consensus forecasts cluster at 1.1-1.3% from EY, Conference Board, and SPF, yet high-growth outcomes draw support from potential German fiscal stimulus adding 0.2 points area-wide and prior upward revisions. Key swing factors include April 30 Q1 flash GDP and escalating trade/geopolitical risks, underscoring crowded uncertainty.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年歐元區年度GDP增長" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1.0-2.0%" at 33%, followed by "7.0%以上" at 30%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"2026年歐元區年度GDP增長" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 22, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "2026年歐元區年度GDP增長," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年歐元區年度GDP增長" is "1.0-2.0%" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "7.0%以上" at 30%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年歐元區年度GDP增長" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.