Polymarket traders price a 74% chance of Canada's 2026 annual inflation landing between 3.0-3.9%, reflecting persistent core pressures and shelter costs despite headline disinflation. September CPI fell to 1.6% YoY—its lowest since 2021—yet CPI-trim (2.35%) and CPI-median (2.77%) hover above the Bank of Canada's 2% target, tempering optimism for a swift return. BoC's October Monetary Policy Report forecasts 2026 CPI averaging 2.1%, but market-implied odds discount this amid sticky rents (29% weight in basket), wage growth near 4%, and U.S. tariff risks post-election. Traders eye November CPI (Dec 3 release) and BoC's Dec 11 decision for resolution cues.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於3.0-3.4% 39.6%
3.5-3.9% 28.0%
2.5–2.9% 21%
2.0–2.4% 16%
低於1.0%
14%
1.0–1.4%
7%
1.5–1.9%
9%
2.0–2.4%
16%
2.5–2.9%
21%
3.0-3.4%
48%
3.5-3.9%
28%
4.0%以上
13%
3.0-3.4% 39.6%
3.5-3.9% 28.0%
2.5–2.9% 21%
2.0–2.4% 16%
低於1.0%
14%
1.0–1.4%
7%
1.5–1.9%
9%
2.0–2.4%
16%
2.5–2.9%
21%
3.0-3.4%
48%
3.5-3.9%
28%
4.0%以上
13%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
市場開放時間: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 74% chance of Canada's 2026 annual inflation landing between 3.0-3.9%, reflecting persistent core pressures and shelter costs despite headline disinflation. September CPI fell to 1.6% YoY—its lowest since 2021—yet CPI-trim (2.35%) and CPI-median (2.77%) hover above the Bank of Canada's 2% target, tempering optimism for a swift return. BoC's October Monetary Policy Report forecasts 2026 CPI averaging 2.1%, but market-implied odds discount this amid sticky rents (29% weight in basket), wage growth near 4%, and U.S. tariff risks post-election. Traders eye November CPI (Dec 3 release) and BoC's Dec 11 decision for resolution cues.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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