Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a June Selic rate cut at 77% implied probability, driven by May IPCA inflation of 0.46% month-over-month—below the 0.49% forecast—and annual rate of 3.93% within the 3% target plus/minus 1.5% band. Copom's May decision lowered the policy rate to 10.5% amid cooling core inflation pressures and weakening activity indicators, including April industrial production down 0.9% versus expectations of -0.2%. No-change odds at 20% reflect fiscal spending risks from recent government packages, while hike probability remains slim at 9.5% absent reacceleration signals. The June 18-19 Copom meeting looms as the key catalyst.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Decrease 77%
No Change 20%
Increase 10%
Increase
10%
No Change
20%
Decrease
77%
Decrease 77%
No Change 20%
Increase 10%
Increase
10%
No Change
20%
Decrease
77%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間: Mar 24, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a June Selic rate cut at 77% implied probability, driven by May IPCA inflation of 0.46% month-over-month—below the 0.49% forecast—and annual rate of 3.93% within the 3% target plus/minus 1.5% band. Copom's May decision lowered the policy rate to 10.5% amid cooling core inflation pressures and weakening activity indicators, including April industrial production down 0.9% versus expectations of -0.2%. No-change odds at 20% reflect fiscal spending risks from recent government packages, while hike probability remains slim at 9.5% absent reacceleration signals. The June 18-19 Copom meeting looms as the key catalyst.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions