Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% for another Iranian diplomat being expelled by April 30, reflecting a lull in diplomatic tensions following a cluster of recent actions. Argentina declared Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata on April 2 over a dispute involving IRGC blacklisting, while U.S. officials revealed on April 3 the prior quiet expulsion of Iran's deputy UN ambassador Saadat Aghajani from December 2025, with at least two others in recent months. Lebanon expelled Iran's ambassador Mohammad Reza Sheibani around March 24 amid political frictions. Absent new verifiable provocations, plots, or escalatory signals in the past two weeks, markets anticipate no further expulsions before the deadline, though late-breaking national security concerns could shift odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
最新
最新
2026-04-30
是
最新
最新
2026-04-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% for another Iranian diplomat being expelled by April 30, reflecting a lull in diplomatic tensions following a cluster of recent actions. Argentina declared Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata on April 2 over a dispute involving IRGC blacklisting, while U.S. officials revealed on April 3 the prior quiet expulsion of Iran's deputy UN ambassador Saadat Aghajani from December 2025, with at least two others in recent months. Lebanon expelled Iran's ambassador Mohammad Reza Sheibani around March 24 amid political frictions. Absent new verifiable provocations, plots, or escalatory signals in the past two weeks, markets anticipate no further expulsions before the deadline, though late-breaking national security concerns could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
交易量
$9,797結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% for another Iranian diplomat being expelled by April 30, reflecting a lull in diplomatic tensions following a cluster of recent actions. Argentina declared Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata on April 2 over a dispute involving IRGC blacklisting, while U.S. officials revealed on April 3 the prior quiet expulsion of Iran's deputy UN ambassador Saadat Aghajani from December 2025, with at least two others in recent months. Lebanon expelled Iran's ambassador Mohammad Reza Sheibani around March 24 amid political frictions. Absent new verifiable provocations, plots, or escalatory signals in the past two weeks, markets anticipate no further expulsions before the deadline, though late-breaking national security concerns could shift odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$9,797結束日期
2026-04-30市場開放時間
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% for another Iranian diplomat being expelled by April 30, reflecting a lull in diplomatic tensions following a cluster of recent actions. Argentina declared Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata on April 2 over a dispute involving IRGC blacklisting, while U.S. officials revealed on April 3 the prior quiet expulsion of Iran's deputy UN ambassador Saadat Aghajani from December 2025, with at least two others in recent months. Lebanon expelled Iran's ambassador Mohammad Reza Sheibani around March 24 amid political frictions. Absent new verifiable provocations, plots, or escalatory signals in the past two weeks, markets anticipate no further expulsions before the deadline, though late-breaking national security concerns could shift odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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