Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.3% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.50%–3.75% across January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed pauses in the prior sessions and firm consensus for no change at the April 28–29 gathering. This positioning stems from resilient economic indicators, including March nonfarm payroll growth of 178,000 jobs and unemployment holding steady at 4.3%, alongside March CPI showing modest easing to 2.9% annualized core but remaining elevated enough to warrant caution. Fed statements emphasized data dependence amid balanced risks, with only one March dissenter favoring a cut. Realistic challenges include a downside surprise in April CPI (due May 12) or weakening labor data prompting a 25 basis point cut, though trader capital heavily discounts such shifts absent major shocks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtQuyết định của Fed (tháng 1-tháng 4)
Quyết định của Fed (tháng 1-tháng 4)
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng 99.3%
Giữ nguyên–Giữ nguyên–Cắt giảm <1%
Khác <1%
$651,527 KL.
$651,527 KL.
Apr 29, 2026
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng
99%
Giữ nguyên–Giữ nguyên–Cắt giảm
1%
Khác
<1%
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng 99.3%
Giữ nguyên–Giữ nguyên–Cắt giảm <1%
Khác <1%
$651,527 KL.
$651,527 KL.
Apr 29, 2026
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng
$98,119 KL.
99%
Giữ nguyên–Giữ nguyên–Cắt giảm
$235,725 KL.
1%
Khác
$277,696 KL.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.3% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.50%–3.75% across January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed pauses in the prior sessions and firm consensus for no change at the April 28–29 gathering. This positioning stems from resilient economic indicators, including March nonfarm payroll growth of 178,000 jobs and unemployment holding steady at 4.3%, alongside March CPI showing modest easing to 2.9% annualized core but remaining elevated enough to warrant caution. Fed statements emphasized data dependence amid balanced risks, with only one March dissenter favoring a cut. Realistic challenges include a downside surprise in April CPI (due May 12) or weakening labor data prompting a 25 basis point cut, though trader capital heavily discounts such shifts absent major shocks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
Khối lượng
$651,527Ngày kết thúc
Apr 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.3% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.50%–3.75% across January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed pauses in the prior sessions and firm consensus for no change at the April 28–29 gathering. This positioning stems from resilient economic indicators, including March nonfarm payroll growth of 178,000 jobs and unemployment holding steady at 4.3%, alongside March CPI showing modest easing to 2.9% annualized core but remaining elevated enough to warrant caution. Fed statements emphasized data dependence amid balanced risks, with only one March dissenter favoring a cut. Realistic challenges include a downside surprise in April CPI (due May 12) or weakening labor data prompting a 25 basis point cut, though trader capital heavily discounts such shifts absent major shocks.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$651,527Ngày kết thúc
Apr 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.3% implied probability for the Federal Reserve maintaining its federal funds rate target range of 3.50%–3.75% across January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed pauses in the prior sessions and firm consensus for no change at the April 28–29 gathering. This positioning stems from resilient economic indicators, including March nonfarm payroll growth of 178,000 jobs and unemployment holding steady at 4.3%, alongside March CPI showing modest easing to 2.9% annualized core but remaining elevated enough to warrant caution. Fed statements emphasized data dependence amid balanced risks, with only one March dissenter favoring a cut. Realistic challenges include a downside surprise in April CPI (due May 12) or weakening labor data prompting a 25 basis point cut, though trader capital heavily discounts such shifts absent major shocks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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