Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the Federal Open Market Committee's January 28, March 18, and April 29, 2026 meetings, as the Fed maintained the federal funds target range at 3½ to 3¾ percent in unanimous or near-unanimous votes. This positioning stems from resilient U.S. economic expansion, a firm labor market, and inflation cooling modestly—April CPI rose 0.9% monthly and 3.3% yearly, core at 2.6% yearly—yet remaining above the 2% target, prompting officials to prioritize data-dependent restraint over easing. March dot plot projections still envision one 2026 cut later, but recent downside surprises in inflation proved insufficient to shift policy. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty, such as sharper economic deterioration or sub-2% inflation, did not materialize; Chair Powell's April 29 press conference may refine forward guidance ahead of June deliberations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtQuyết định của Fed (tháng 1-tháng 4)
Quyết định của Fed (tháng 1-tháng 4)
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng 100.0%
Cắt–Tạm Dừng–Tạm Dừng <1%
Cắt–Cắt–Tạm dừng <1%
Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm–Tạm dừng <1%
$695,645 KL.
$695,645 KL.
Apr 29, 2026
Cắt–Tạm Dừng–Tạm Dừng
Không
Cắt–Cắt–Tạm dừng
Không
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng
Có
Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm–Tạm dừng
Không
Khác
Không
Cắt–Tạm Dừng–Cắt
Không
Cắt–cắt–cắt
Không
Giữ nguyên–Giữ nguyên–Cắt giảm
Không
Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm–Cắt giảm
Không
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng 100.0%
Cắt–Tạm Dừng–Tạm Dừng <1%
Cắt–Cắt–Tạm dừng <1%
Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm–Tạm dừng <1%
$695,645 KL.
$695,645 KL.
Apr 29, 2026
Cắt–Tạm Dừng–Tạm Dừng
$2,755 KL.
Không
Cắt–Cắt–Tạm dừng
$6,537 KL.
Không
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng
$116,256 KL.
Có
Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm–Tạm dừng
$0 KL.
Không
Khác
$289,268 KL.
Không
Cắt–Tạm Dừng–Cắt
$8,555 KL.
Không
Cắt–cắt–cắt
$22,139 KL.
Không
Giữ nguyên–Giữ nguyên–Cắt giảm
$250,134 KL.
Không
Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm–Cắt giảm
$0 KL.
Không
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the Federal Open Market Committee's January 28, March 18, and April 29, 2026 meetings, as the Fed maintained the federal funds target range at 3½ to 3¾ percent in unanimous or near-unanimous votes. This positioning stems from resilient U.S. economic expansion, a firm labor market, and inflation cooling modestly—April CPI rose 0.9% monthly and 3.3% yearly, core at 2.6% yearly—yet remaining above the 2% target, prompting officials to prioritize data-dependent restraint over easing. March dot plot projections still envision one 2026 cut later, but recent downside surprises in inflation proved insufficient to shift policy. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty, such as sharper economic deterioration or sub-2% inflation, did not materialize; Chair Powell's April 29 press conference may refine forward guidance ahead of June deliberations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
Khối lượng
$695,645Ngày kết thúc
Apr 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kết quả đề xuất: Không
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: Không
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the Federal Open Market Committee's January 28, March 18, and April 29, 2026 meetings, as the Fed maintained the federal funds target range at 3½ to 3¾ percent in unanimous or near-unanimous votes. This positioning stems from resilient U.S. economic expansion, a firm labor market, and inflation cooling modestly—April CPI rose 0.9% monthly and 3.3% yearly, core at 2.6% yearly—yet remaining above the 2% target, prompting officials to prioritize data-dependent restraint over easing. March dot plot projections still envision one 2026 cut later, but recent downside surprises in inflation proved insufficient to shift policy. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty, such as sharper economic deterioration or sub-2% inflation, did not materialize; Chair Powell's April 29 press conference may refine forward guidance ahead of June deliberations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$695,645Ngày kết thúc
Apr 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kết quả đề xuất: Không
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: Không
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for Pause–Pause–Pause across the Federal Open Market Committee's January 28, March 18, and April 29, 2026 meetings, as the Fed maintained the federal funds target range at 3½ to 3¾ percent in unanimous or near-unanimous votes. This positioning stems from resilient U.S. economic expansion, a firm labor market, and inflation cooling modestly—April CPI rose 0.9% monthly and 3.3% yearly, core at 2.6% yearly—yet remaining above the 2% target, prompting officials to prioritize data-dependent restraint over easing. March dot plot projections still envision one 2026 cut later, but recent downside surprises in inflation proved insufficient to shift policy. Scenarios challenging this near-certainty, such as sharper economic deterioration or sub-2% inflation, did not materialize; Chair Powell's April 29 press conference may refine forward guidance ahead of June deliberations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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