Elevated inflation readings, including April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year driven by a sharp rise in energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market, have anchored trader expectations for no federal funds rate changes at the March, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings. The current 3.50%-3.75% target range has held steady through the April decision, with market-implied odds reflecting a broad consensus that policymakers will prioritize inflation risks over easing. Recent FOMC minutes and dot plot projections reinforce this cautious stance, showing limited appetite for cuts this year. The June 17-18 meeting, alongside the upcoming May CPI release on June 10, represents the primary near-term catalyst that could sustain or modestly shift these probabilities if incoming data alters the inflation or growth outlook.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtDừng–Dừng–Dừng 97.4%
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm 2.1%
Khác <1%
$1,259,365 KL.
$1,259,365 KL.
Jun 17, 2026
Dừng–Dừng–Dừng
97%
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm
2%
Khác
1%
Dừng–Dừng–Dừng 97.4%
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm 2.1%
Khác <1%
$1,259,365 KL.
$1,259,365 KL.
Jun 17, 2026
Dừng–Dừng–Dừng
$134,898 KL.
97%
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm
$92,381 KL.
2%
Khác
$286,744 KL.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings, including April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year driven by a sharp rise in energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market, have anchored trader expectations for no federal funds rate changes at the March, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings. The current 3.50%-3.75% target range has held steady through the April decision, with market-implied odds reflecting a broad consensus that policymakers will prioritize inflation risks over easing. Recent FOMC minutes and dot plot projections reinforce this cautious stance, showing limited appetite for cuts this year. The June 17-18 meeting, alongside the upcoming May CPI release on June 10, represents the primary near-term catalyst that could sustain or modestly shift these probabilities if incoming data alters the inflation or growth outlook.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,259,365Ngày kết thúc
Jun 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings, including April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year driven by a sharp rise in energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market, have anchored trader expectations for no federal funds rate changes at the March, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings. The current 3.50%-3.75% target range has held steady through the April decision, with market-implied odds reflecting a broad consensus that policymakers will prioritize inflation risks over easing. Recent FOMC minutes and dot plot projections reinforce this cautious stance, showing limited appetite for cuts this year. The June 17-18 meeting, alongside the upcoming May CPI release on June 10, represents the primary near-term catalyst that could sustain or modestly shift these probabilities if incoming data alters the inflation or growth outlook.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$1,259,365Ngày kết thúc
Jun 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated inflation readings, including April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year driven by a sharp rise in energy prices amid Middle East geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market, have anchored trader expectations for no federal funds rate changes at the March, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings. The current 3.50%-3.75% target range has held steady through the April decision, with market-implied odds reflecting a broad consensus that policymakers will prioritize inflation risks over easing. Recent FOMC minutes and dot plot projections reinforce this cautious stance, showing limited appetite for cuts this year. The June 17-18 meeting, alongside the upcoming May CPI release on June 10, represents the primary near-term catalyst that could sustain or modestly shift these probabilities if incoming data alters the inflation or growth outlook.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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