Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors consecutive pauses in FOMC decisions through June at 91% implied probability, driven by March 2026 CPI surging 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions—and stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The March FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with the dot plot's median projection for one 25 basis point cut later in 2026. This hawkish repricing reflects diminished rate-cut urgency amid sticky inflation and resilient labor markets. Scenarios challenging this include softer April CPI or PCE data ahead of the late-April FOMC, potentially reviving easing odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtDừng–Dừng–Dừng 91%
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm 7%
Khác 1.4%
Dừng–Giảm–Dừng 1.1%
$907,783 KL.
$907,783 KL.
Jun 17, 2026
Dừng–Dừng–Dừng
91%
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm
7%
Khác
1%
Dừng–Giảm–Dừng
1%
Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm–Cắt giảm
1%
Dừng–Dừng–Dừng 91%
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm 7%
Khác 1.4%
Dừng–Giảm–Dừng 1.1%
$907,783 KL.
$907,783 KL.
Jun 17, 2026
Dừng–Dừng–Dừng
$32,968 KL.
91%
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm
$15,303 KL.
7%
Khác
$216,634 KL.
1%
Dừng–Giảm–Dừng
$132,599 KL.
1%
Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm–Cắt giảm
$510,280 KL.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors consecutive pauses in FOMC decisions through June at 91% implied probability, driven by March 2026 CPI surging 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions—and stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The March FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with the dot plot's median projection for one 25 basis point cut later in 2026. This hawkish repricing reflects diminished rate-cut urgency amid sticky inflation and resilient labor markets. Scenarios challenging this include softer April CPI or PCE data ahead of the late-April FOMC, potentially reviving easing odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Khối lượng
$907,783Ngày kết thúc
Jun 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors consecutive pauses in FOMC decisions through June at 91% implied probability, driven by March 2026 CPI surging 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions—and stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The March FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with the dot plot's median projection for one 25 basis point cut later in 2026. This hawkish repricing reflects diminished rate-cut urgency amid sticky inflation and resilient labor markets. Scenarios challenging this include softer April CPI or PCE data ahead of the late-April FOMC, potentially reviving easing odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$907,783Ngày kết thúc
Jun 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors consecutive pauses in FOMC decisions through June at 91% implied probability, driven by March 2026 CPI surging 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from February's 2.4% amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions—and stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs with unemployment dipping to 4.3%. The March FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with the dot plot's median projection for one 25 basis point cut later in 2026. This hawkish repricing reflects diminished rate-cut urgency amid sticky inflation and resilient labor markets. Scenarios challenging this include softer April CPI or PCE data ahead of the late-April FOMC, potentially reviving easing odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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