Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining its fed funds rate through the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings (Pause–Pause–Pause), driven by the April 28-29 decision to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation pressures and labor market strength. March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—while April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, nearly double expectations of 62,000, with unemployment holding at 4.3%. This data reinforces the Fed's cautious stance, aligning with CME FedWatch holds above 96% for recent meetings. Scenarios challenging this include a softer-than-expected April CPI on May 12 or weakening job growth ahead of the June 16-17 meeting, potentially prompting cut repricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtDừng–Dừng–Dừng 97.5%
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm 1.8%
Khác 1.3%
$1,040,927 KL.
$1,040,927 KL.
Jun 17, 2026
Dừng–Dừng–Dừng
98%
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm
2%
Khác
1%
Dừng–Dừng–Dừng 97.5%
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm 1.8%
Khác 1.3%
$1,040,927 KL.
$1,040,927 KL.
Jun 17, 2026
Dừng–Dừng–Dừng
$48,228 KL.
98%
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm
$23,603 KL.
2%
Khác
$223,754 KL.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining its fed funds rate through the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings (Pause–Pause–Pause), driven by the April 28-29 decision to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation pressures and labor market strength. March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—while April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, nearly double expectations of 62,000, with unemployment holding at 4.3%. This data reinforces the Fed's cautious stance, aligning with CME FedWatch holds above 96% for recent meetings. Scenarios challenging this include a softer-than-expected April CPI on May 12 or weakening job growth ahead of the June 16-17 meeting, potentially prompting cut repricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,040,927Ngày kết thúc
Jun 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining its fed funds rate through the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings (Pause–Pause–Pause), driven by the April 28-29 decision to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation pressures and labor market strength. March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—while April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, nearly double expectations of 62,000, with unemployment holding at 4.3%. This data reinforces the Fed's cautious stance, aligning with CME FedWatch holds above 96% for recent meetings. Scenarios challenging this include a softer-than-expected April CPI on May 12 or weakening job growth ahead of the June 16-17 meeting, potentially prompting cut repricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$1,040,927Ngày kết thúc
Jun 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 97.5% implied probability to the Federal Reserve maintaining its fed funds rate through the March, April, and June 2026 FOMC meetings (Pause–Pause–Pause), driven by the April 28-29 decision to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid persistent inflation pressures and labor market strength. March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—while April nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, nearly double expectations of 62,000, with unemployment holding at 4.3%. This data reinforces the Fed's cautious stance, aligning with CME FedWatch holds above 96% for recent meetings. Scenarios challenging this include a softer-than-expected April CPI on May 12 or weakening job growth ahead of the June 16-17 meeting, potentially prompting cut repricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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