Elevated inflation pressures stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a resilient labor market with unemployment holding near 4.3% have anchored market-implied odds at 76% for a Pause–Pause–Pause path across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% following the April decision and recent data showing hotter price trends, traders view the current monetary policy stance as appropriately cautious. Forward-looking futures markets now price minimal odds of cuts this year, aligning with the Fed’s latest projections of one potential reduction amid uncertainty. Upcoming June 16–17 communications and fresh inflation releases will serve as key catalysts that could shift these probabilities if labor or price data surprise materially.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 74%
Other 12%
Pause–Cut–Cut 9.3%
Pause–Pause–Cut 8%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
4%
Cut–Pause–Cut
6%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
74%
Pause–Pause–Cut
8%
Pause–Cut–Pause
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
9%
Other
12%
Pause–Pause–Pause 74%
Other 12%
Pause–Cut–Cut 9.3%
Pause–Pause–Cut 8%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$116 KL.
4%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$122 KL.
6%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$172 KL.
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$126 KL.
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$375 KL.
74%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$163 KL.
8%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$131 KL.
5%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$122 KL.
9%
Other
$122 KL.
12%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation pressures stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a resilient labor market with unemployment holding near 4.3% have anchored market-implied odds at 76% for a Pause–Pause–Pause path across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% following the April decision and recent data showing hotter price trends, traders view the current monetary policy stance as appropriately cautious. Forward-looking futures markets now price minimal odds of cuts this year, aligning with the Fed’s latest projections of one potential reduction amid uncertainty. Upcoming June 16–17 communications and fresh inflation releases will serve as key catalysts that could shift these probabilities if labor or price data surprise materially.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,450Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation pressures stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a resilient labor market with unemployment holding near 4.3% have anchored market-implied odds at 76% for a Pause–Pause–Pause path across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% following the April decision and recent data showing hotter price trends, traders view the current monetary policy stance as appropriately cautious. Forward-looking futures markets now price minimal odds of cuts this year, aligning with the Fed’s latest projections of one potential reduction amid uncertainty. Upcoming June 16–17 communications and fresh inflation releases will serve as key catalysts that could shift these probabilities if labor or price data surprise materially.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$1,450Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation pressures stemming from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a resilient labor market with unemployment holding near 4.3% have anchored market-implied odds at 76% for a Pause–Pause–Pause path across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% following the April decision and recent data showing hotter price trends, traders view the current monetary policy stance as appropriately cautious. Forward-looking futures markets now price minimal odds of cuts this year, aligning with the Fed’s latest projections of one potential reduction amid uncertainty. Upcoming June 16–17 communications and fresh inflation releases will serve as key catalysts that could shift these probabilities if labor or price data surprise materially.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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