Persistent inflation near 4% year-over-year alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.3% has anchored market-implied odds for a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings at 73.5%. Recent data releases and the April FOMC minutes reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent stance, shifting consensus away from earlier 2026 easing expectations toward a prolonged hold at the 3.50–3.75% target range. CME FedWatch probabilities and professional forecasts now price minimal near-term cuts, with traders viewing any policy shift as contingent on cooler CPI prints or labor softening ahead of the June 16–17 meeting and updated Summary of Economic Projections.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 72%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 5.6%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
3%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
77%
Pause–Pause–Cut
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
6%
Pause–Cut–Cut
6%
Other
18%
Pause–Pause–Pause 72%
Other 24%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12.5%
Pause–Cut–Pause 5.6%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$286 KL.
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$441 KL.
3%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$185 KL.
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$172 KL.
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$920 KL.
77%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$199 KL.
11%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$131 KL.
6%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$122 KL.
6%
Other
$169 KL.
18%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation near 4% year-over-year alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.3% has anchored market-implied odds for a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings at 73.5%. Recent data releases and the April FOMC minutes reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent stance, shifting consensus away from earlier 2026 easing expectations toward a prolonged hold at the 3.50–3.75% target range. CME FedWatch probabilities and professional forecasts now price minimal near-term cuts, with traders viewing any policy shift as contingent on cooler CPI prints or labor softening ahead of the June 16–17 meeting and updated Summary of Economic Projections.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,626Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation near 4% year-over-year alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.3% has anchored market-implied odds for a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings at 73.5%. Recent data releases and the April FOMC minutes reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent stance, shifting consensus away from earlier 2026 easing expectations toward a prolonged hold at the 3.50–3.75% target range. CME FedWatch probabilities and professional forecasts now price minimal near-term cuts, with traders viewing any policy shift as contingent on cooler CPI prints or labor softening ahead of the June 16–17 meeting and updated Summary of Economic Projections.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$2,626Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation near 4% year-over-year alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.3% has anchored market-implied odds for a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome across the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings at 73.5%. Recent data releases and the April FOMC minutes reinforced the Fed’s data-dependent stance, shifting consensus away from earlier 2026 easing expectations toward a prolonged hold at the 3.50–3.75% target range. CME FedWatch probabilities and professional forecasts now price minimal near-term cuts, with traders viewing any policy shift as contingent on cooler CPI prints or labor softening ahead of the June 16–17 meeting and updated Summary of Economic Projections.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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