Polymarket traders price a 57% chance of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts throughout 2026, driven by the April 28-29 FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% for a third straight meeting amid inflation worries and labor market resilience. Friday's April nonfarm payrolls report showed 115,000 jobs added—down from March's revised 185,000 but above subdued expectations—with unemployment unchanged at 4.3%, reinforcing a wait-and-see policy stance. March core CPI eased to 2.6% year-over-year, yet Chair Powell highlighted global uncertainties in recent remarks, curbing cut odds. Watch April CPI on May 12 and the June 16-17 FOMC with projections for potential shifts in trader consensus.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$1,697,279 KL.
Jun 17, 2026
Cuộc họp tháng 6
2%
Cuộc họp tháng 7
11%
Cuộc họp tháng 9
18%
Cuộc họp tháng 10
29%
Cuộc họp tháng 12
39%
$1,697,279 KL.
Cuộc họp tháng 6
$270,463 KL.
2%
Cuộc họp tháng 7
$60,243 KL.
11%
Cuộc họp tháng 9
$91,139 KL.
18%
Cuộc họp tháng 10
$42,999 KL.
29%
Cuộc họp tháng 12
$101,452 KL.
39%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for June 2026, currently scheduled for June 16-17. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no June meeting takes place by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for July 2026, currently scheduled for July 28-29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no July meeting takes place by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for September 2026, currently scheduled for September 15-16. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no September meeting takes place by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for October 2026, currently scheduled for October 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no October meeting takes place by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for March 2026, currently scheduled for March 17-18. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no March meeting takes place by April 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for April 2026, currently scheduled for April 28-29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no April meeting takes place by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders price a 57% chance of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts throughout 2026, driven by the April 28-29 FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% for a third straight meeting amid inflation worries and labor market resilience. Friday's April nonfarm payrolls report showed 115,000 jobs added—down from March's revised 185,000 but above subdued expectations—with unemployment unchanged at 4.3%, reinforcing a wait-and-see policy stance. March core CPI eased to 2.6% year-over-year, yet Chair Powell highlighted global uncertainties in recent remarks, curbing cut odds. Watch April CPI on May 12 and the June 16-17 FOMC with projections for potential shifts in trader consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for June 2026, currently scheduled for June 16-17. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no June meeting takes place by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If no June meeting takes place by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 16, 2025, 2:26 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,697,279Ngày kết thúc
Jun 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 2:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for June 2026, currently scheduled for June 16-17. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no June meeting takes place by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for July 2026, currently scheduled for July 28-29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no July meeting takes place by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for September 2026, currently scheduled for September 15-16. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no September meeting takes place by October 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for October 2026, currently scheduled for October 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no October meeting takes place by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for March 2026, currently scheduled for March 17-18. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no March meeting takes place by April 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for April 2026, currently scheduled for April 28-29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no April meeting takes place by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders price a 57% chance of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts throughout 2026, driven by the April 28-29 FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% for a third straight meeting amid inflation worries and labor market resilience. Friday's April nonfarm payrolls report showed 115,000 jobs added—down from March's revised 185,000 but above subdued expectations—with unemployment unchanged at 4.3%, reinforcing a wait-and-see policy stance. March core CPI eased to 2.6% year-over-year, yet Chair Powell highlighted global uncertainties in recent remarks, curbing cut odds. Watch April CPI on May 12 and the June 16-17 FOMC with projections for potential shifts in trader consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for June 2026, currently scheduled for June 16-17. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no June meeting takes place by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If no June meeting takes place by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$1,697,279Ngày kết thúc
Jun 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 16, 2025, 2:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 57% chance of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts throughout 2026, driven by the April 28-29 FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% for a third straight meeting amid inflation worries and labor market resilience. Friday's April nonfarm payrolls report showed 115,000 jobs added—down from March's revised 185,000 but above subdued expectations—with unemployment unchanged at 4.3%, reinforcing a wait-and-see policy stance. March core CPI eased to 2.6% year-over-year, yet Chair Powell highlighted global uncertainties in recent remarks, curbing cut odds. Watch April CPI on May 12 and the June 16-17 FOMC with projections for potential shifts in trader consensus.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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