Traders are assigning a 93% implied probability to three consecutive pauses at the Federal Reserve's April, June, and July 2026 meetings, reflecting the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50%–3.75% range amid an 8-4 split. Elevated year-over-year inflation readings, driven by a surge in energy prices from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have shifted expectations away from near-term easing and toward a data-dependent hold. Recent communications emphasize uncertainty in the labor market and price trajectory, with markets now pricing no rate adjustments through year-end. June CPI and employment data releases could alter this path if disinflation accelerates or growth weakens materially, though current consensus points to sustained caution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.4%
Other 3.2%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.7%
$49,044 KL.
$49,044 KL.
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
2%
Other
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.4%
Other 3.2%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.7%
$49,044 KL.
$49,044 KL.
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,608 KL.
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,665 KL.
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,568 KL.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,622 KL.
2%
Other
$1,595 KL.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders are assigning a 93% implied probability to three consecutive pauses at the Federal Reserve's April, June, and July 2026 meetings, reflecting the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50%–3.75% range amid an 8-4 split. Elevated year-over-year inflation readings, driven by a surge in energy prices from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have shifted expectations away from near-term easing and toward a data-dependent hold. Recent communications emphasize uncertainty in the labor market and price trajectory, with markets now pricing no rate adjustments through year-end. June CPI and employment data releases could alter this path if disinflation accelerates or growth weakens materially, though current consensus points to sustained caution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Khối lượng
$49,044Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders are assigning a 93% implied probability to three consecutive pauses at the Federal Reserve's April, June, and July 2026 meetings, reflecting the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50%–3.75% range amid an 8-4 split. Elevated year-over-year inflation readings, driven by a surge in energy prices from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have shifted expectations away from near-term easing and toward a data-dependent hold. Recent communications emphasize uncertainty in the labor market and price trajectory, with markets now pricing no rate adjustments through year-end. June CPI and employment data releases could alter this path if disinflation accelerates or growth weakens materially, though current consensus points to sustained caution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$49,044Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders are assigning a 93% implied probability to three consecutive pauses at the Federal Reserve's April, June, and July 2026 meetings, reflecting the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady in the 3.50%–3.75% range amid an 8-4 split. Elevated year-over-year inflation readings, driven by a surge in energy prices from Middle East geopolitical tensions, have shifted expectations away from near-term easing and toward a data-dependent hold. Recent communications emphasize uncertainty in the labor market and price trajectory, with markets now pricing no rate adjustments through year-end. June CPI and employment data releases could alter this path if disinflation accelerates or growth weakens materially, though current consensus points to sustained caution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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