Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an implied 79% probability of no Federal Reserve rate changes at the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and labor market resilience amid elevated energy costs. March CPI surged 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by a 10.9% energy spike—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, dipping unemployment to 4.3% and exceeding soft landing thresholds. The March FOMC held the fed funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, with Chair Powell emphasizing data-dependent policy amid one forecasted 2026 cut. Upcoming April meeting risks hinge on pre-release nowcasts showing persistent price pressures, potentially solidifying the pause trajectory.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPause–Pause–Pause 79%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12%
Other 9%
Cut–Pause–Cut 3.5%
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
3%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
79%
Pause–Pause–Cut
12%
Pause–Cut–Pause
3%
Pause–Cut–Cut
3%
Other
9%
Pause–Pause–Pause 79%
Pause–Pause–Cut 12%
Other 9%
Cut–Pause–Cut 3.5%
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 29, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$1,003 KL.
1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$737 KL.
3%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$740 KL.
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$766 KL.
<1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,411 KL.
79%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$954 KL.
12%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$624 KL.
3%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$796 KL.
3%
Other
$915 KL.
9%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an implied 79% probability of no Federal Reserve rate changes at the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and labor market resilience amid elevated energy costs. March CPI surged 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by a 10.9% energy spike—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, dipping unemployment to 4.3% and exceeding soft landing thresholds. The March FOMC held the fed funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, with Chair Powell emphasizing data-dependent policy amid one forecasted 2026 cut. Upcoming April meeting risks hinge on pre-release nowcasts showing persistent price pressures, potentially solidifying the pause trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Khối lượng
$7,945Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices an implied 79% probability of no Federal Reserve rate changes at the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and labor market resilience amid elevated energy costs. March CPI surged 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by a 10.9% energy spike—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, dipping unemployment to 4.3% and exceeding soft landing thresholds. The March FOMC held the fed funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, with Chair Powell emphasizing data-dependent policy amid one forecasted 2026 cut. Upcoming April meeting risks hinge on pre-release nowcasts showing persistent price pressures, potentially solidifying the pause trajectory.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$7,945Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an implied 79% probability of no Federal Reserve rate changes at the April 28-29, June 16-17, and July 28-29 FOMC meetings, reflecting sticky inflation and labor market resilience amid elevated energy costs. March CPI surged 0.9% month-over-month to 3.3% year-over-year—driven by a 10.9% energy spike—while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, dipping unemployment to 4.3% and exceeding soft landing thresholds. The March FOMC held the fed funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, with Chair Powell emphasizing data-dependent policy amid one forecasted 2026 cut. Upcoming April meeting risks hinge on pre-release nowcasts showing persistent price pressures, potentially solidifying the pause trajectory.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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