Polymarket traders price a modest 17% implied probability for a Federal Reserve rate hike by the October 27-28 FOMC meeting—the current frontrunner—reflecting heightened caution after April 2026 CPI inflation accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year from 3.3% in March, driven by spikes in energy, food, and technology prices. The Fed maintained its federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 28-29 meeting, citing resilient labor market conditions with unemployment steady at 4.3% and stronger-than-expected job gains. CME FedWatch Tool shows near-certainty (over 97%) of no change at the June 16-17 session, but persistent inflation above the 2% goal could shift sentiment if upcoming PCE data or nonfarm payrolls surprise hotter, testing the Committee's pause narrative.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$145,069 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
1%
July Meeting
5%
September Meeting
16%
October Meeting
16%
$145,069 KL.
June Meeting
$12,502 KL.
1%
July Meeting
$770 KL.
5%
September Meeting
$49 KL.
16%
October Meeting
$440 KL.
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders price a modest 17% implied probability for a Federal Reserve rate hike by the October 27-28 FOMC meeting—the current frontrunner—reflecting heightened caution after April 2026 CPI inflation accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year from 3.3% in March, driven by spikes in energy, food, and technology prices. The Fed maintained its federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 28-29 meeting, citing resilient labor market conditions with unemployment steady at 4.3% and stronger-than-expected job gains. CME FedWatch Tool shows near-certainty (over 97%) of no change at the June 16-17 session, but persistent inflation above the 2% goal could shift sentiment if upcoming PCE data or nonfarm payrolls surprise hotter, testing the Committee's pause narrative.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Khối lượng
$145,069Ngày kết thúc
Oct 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders price a modest 17% implied probability for a Federal Reserve rate hike by the October 27-28 FOMC meeting—the current frontrunner—reflecting heightened caution after April 2026 CPI inflation accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year from 3.3% in March, driven by spikes in energy, food, and technology prices. The Fed maintained its federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 28-29 meeting, citing resilient labor market conditions with unemployment steady at 4.3% and stronger-than-expected job gains. CME FedWatch Tool shows near-certainty (over 97%) of no change at the June 16-17 session, but persistent inflation above the 2% goal could shift sentiment if upcoming PCE data or nonfarm payrolls surprise hotter, testing the Committee's pause narrative.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$145,069Ngày kết thúc
Oct 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a modest 17% implied probability for a Federal Reserve rate hike by the October 27-28 FOMC meeting—the current frontrunner—reflecting heightened caution after April 2026 CPI inflation accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year from 3.3% in March, driven by spikes in energy, food, and technology prices. The Fed maintained its federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 28-29 meeting, citing resilient labor market conditions with unemployment steady at 4.3% and stronger-than-expected job gains. CME FedWatch Tool shows near-certainty (over 97%) of no change at the June 16-17 session, but persistent inflation above the 2% goal could shift sentiment if upcoming PCE data or nonfarm payrolls surprise hotter, testing the Committee's pause narrative.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp