Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty against a Federal Reserve rate hike in the near term, driven by the March 2026 FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75%, despite CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year from 2.4% in February amid war-fueled oil shocks. March meeting minutes highlighted some officials' openness to hikes if pressures persist, but softening labor data—nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 and unemployment held at 4.3%—bolsters cut expectations later in 2026. CME FedWatch implies 99% odds of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, with April CPI due May 12 as the key near-term catalyst.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$35,081 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
April Meeting
1%
June Meeting
3%
July Meeting
10%
September Meeting
16%
October Meeting
19%
$35,081 KL.
April Meeting
$24,808 KL.
1%
June Meeting
$9,225 KL.
3%
July Meeting
$671 KL.
10%
September Meeting
$33 KL.
16%
October Meeting
$344 KL.
19%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty against a Federal Reserve rate hike in the near term, driven by the March 2026 FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75%, despite CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year from 2.4% in February amid war-fueled oil shocks. March meeting minutes highlighted some officials' openness to hikes if pressures persist, but softening labor data—nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 and unemployment held at 4.3%—bolsters cut expectations later in 2026. CME FedWatch implies 99% odds of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, with April CPI due May 12 as the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Khối lượng
$35,081Ngày kết thúc
Oct 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty against a Federal Reserve rate hike in the near term, driven by the March 2026 FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75%, despite CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year from 2.4% in February amid war-fueled oil shocks. March meeting minutes highlighted some officials' openness to hikes if pressures persist, but softening labor data—nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 and unemployment held at 4.3%—bolsters cut expectations later in 2026. CME FedWatch implies 99% odds of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, with April CPI due May 12 as the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$35,081Ngày kết thúc
Oct 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty against a Federal Reserve rate hike in the near term, driven by the March 2026 FOMC's decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75%, despite CPI inflation accelerating to 3.3% year-over-year from 2.4% in February amid war-fueled oil shocks. March meeting minutes highlighted some officials' openness to hikes if pressures persist, but softening labor data—nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000 and unemployment held at 4.3%—bolsters cut expectations later in 2026. CME FedWatch implies 99% odds of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, with April CPI due May 12 as the key near-term catalyst.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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