The Federal Reserve held its federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% after the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, marked by unusual policymaker dissent amid persistent inflation pressures, but April's Consumer Price Index—released May 12—surged 0.6% monthly to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023 and above March's 3.3%. This hot print has elevated trader consensus for potential rate hikes, with CME FedWatch implying about 37% odds before year-end, up sharply post-data. Labor markets remain solid, with April nonfarm payrolls at +115,000 and unemployment steady at 4.3%. Polymarket reflects this skin-in-the-game sentiment shift; watch the June 16-17 FOMC and May CPI for resolution cues.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$145,069 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
1%
July Meeting
5%
September Meeting
17%
October Meeting
16%
$145,069 KL.
June Meeting
$12,502 KL.
1%
July Meeting
$770 KL.
5%
September Meeting
$49 KL.
17%
October Meeting
$440 KL.
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve held its federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% after the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, marked by unusual policymaker dissent amid persistent inflation pressures, but April's Consumer Price Index—released May 12—surged 0.6% monthly to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023 and above March's 3.3%. This hot print has elevated trader consensus for potential rate hikes, with CME FedWatch implying about 37% odds before year-end, up sharply post-data. Labor markets remain solid, with April nonfarm payrolls at +115,000 and unemployment steady at 4.3%. Polymarket reflects this skin-in-the-game sentiment shift; watch the June 16-17 FOMC and May CPI for resolution cues.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Khối lượng
$145,069Ngày kết thúc
Oct 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve held its federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% after the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, marked by unusual policymaker dissent amid persistent inflation pressures, but April's Consumer Price Index—released May 12—surged 0.6% monthly to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023 and above March's 3.3%. This hot print has elevated trader consensus for potential rate hikes, with CME FedWatch implying about 37% odds before year-end, up sharply post-data. Labor markets remain solid, with April nonfarm payrolls at +115,000 and unemployment steady at 4.3%. Polymarket reflects this skin-in-the-game sentiment shift; watch the June 16-17 FOMC and May CPI for resolution cues.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$145,069Ngày kết thúc
Oct 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve held its federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% after the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, marked by unusual policymaker dissent amid persistent inflation pressures, but April's Consumer Price Index—released May 12—surged 0.6% monthly to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023 and above March's 3.3%. This hot print has elevated trader consensus for potential rate hikes, with CME FedWatch implying about 37% odds before year-end, up sharply post-data. Labor markets remain solid, with April nonfarm payrolls at +115,000 and unemployment steady at 4.3%. Polymarket reflects this skin-in-the-game sentiment shift; watch the June 16-17 FOMC and May CPI for resolution cues.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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