April 2026 CPI surged to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy price spikes from the Iran war, accelerating from March's 3.3% and prompting banks like BofA and Goldman Sachs to eliminate 2026 rate-cut forecasts. The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its April 28-29 meeting amid internal divisions, with dissents signaling hawkish concerns over elevated inflation. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for hikes before October, prioritizing sustained data over one-off shocks, though March PCE at 3.5% headline and 3.2% core underscores persistent pressures. Key watch: June 16-17 FOMC and May jobs report, which could recalibrate rate path expectations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$145,069 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
June Meeting
1%
July Meeting
5%
September Meeting
17%
October Meeting
16%
$145,069 KL.
June Meeting
$12,502 KL.
1%
July Meeting
$770 KL.
5%
September Meeting
$49 KL.
17%
October Meeting
$440 KL.
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.April 2026 CPI surged to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy price spikes from the Iran war, accelerating from March's 3.3% and prompting banks like BofA and Goldman Sachs to eliminate 2026 rate-cut forecasts. The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its April 28-29 meeting amid internal divisions, with dissents signaling hawkish concerns over elevated inflation. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for hikes before October, prioritizing sustained data over one-off shocks, though March PCE at 3.5% headline and 3.2% core underscores persistent pressures. Key watch: June 16-17 FOMC and May jobs report, which could recalibrate rate path expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Khối lượng
$145,069Ngày kết thúc
Oct 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.April 2026 CPI surged to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy price spikes from the Iran war, accelerating from March's 3.3% and prompting banks like BofA and Goldman Sachs to eliminate 2026 rate-cut forecasts. The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its April 28-29 meeting amid internal divisions, with dissents signaling hawkish concerns over elevated inflation. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for hikes before October, prioritizing sustained data over one-off shocks, though March PCE at 3.5% headline and 3.2% core underscores persistent pressures. Key watch: June 16-17 FOMC and May jobs report, which could recalibrate rate path expectations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$145,069Ngày kết thúc
Oct 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...April 2026 CPI surged to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—driven by energy price spikes from the Iran war, accelerating from March's 3.3% and prompting banks like BofA and Goldman Sachs to eliminate 2026 rate-cut forecasts. The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its April 28-29 meeting amid internal divisions, with dissents signaling hawkish concerns over elevated inflation. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects low implied probabilities for hikes before October, prioritizing sustained data over one-off shocks, though March PCE at 3.5% headline and 3.2% core underscores persistent pressures. Key watch: June 16-17 FOMC and May jobs report, which could recalibrate rate path expectations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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