Persistent above-target inflation, highlighted by April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, anchors the 93.5% market-implied odds of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. The federal funds rate remains in the 3.5-3.75% range following the June 16-17 decision, supported by a stable 4.3% unemployment rate in May that signals labor market resilience without clear softening. This data-dependent stance keeps trader consensus focused on holding policy steady, as markets price in minimal probability for 25 basis point moves. The upcoming May CPI release on June 10 and any June FOMC communications could shift sentiment if they reveal clearer disinflation or unexpected economic weakness, though current positioning assigns low weight to such outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKhông thay đổi 94%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản 4.3%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản 1.7%
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản <1%
$8,211,928 KL.
$8,211,928 KL.
Jul 29, 2026
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản
1%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản
2%
Không thay đổi
94%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản
4%
Tăng 50 điểm cơ bản trở lên
<1%
Không thay đổi 94%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản 4.3%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản 1.7%
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản <1%
$8,211,928 KL.
$8,211,928 KL.
Jul 29, 2026
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản
$1,058,865 KL.
1%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản
$850,053 KL.
2%
Không thay đổi
$1,090,867 KL.
94%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản
$3,868,854 KL.
4%
Tăng 50 điểm cơ bản trở lên
$1,343,289 KL.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent above-target inflation, highlighted by April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, anchors the 93.5% market-implied odds of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. The federal funds rate remains in the 3.5-3.75% range following the June 16-17 decision, supported by a stable 4.3% unemployment rate in May that signals labor market resilience without clear softening. This data-dependent stance keeps trader consensus focused on holding policy steady, as markets price in minimal probability for 25 basis point moves. The upcoming May CPI release on June 10 and any June FOMC communications could shift sentiment if they reveal clearer disinflation or unexpected economic weakness, though current positioning assigns low weight to such outcomes.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$8,211,928Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent above-target inflation, highlighted by April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, anchors the 93.5% market-implied odds of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. The federal funds rate remains in the 3.5-3.75% range following the June 16-17 decision, supported by a stable 4.3% unemployment rate in May that signals labor market resilience without clear softening. This data-dependent stance keeps trader consensus focused on holding policy steady, as markets price in minimal probability for 25 basis point moves. The upcoming May CPI release on June 10 and any June FOMC communications could shift sentiment if they reveal clearer disinflation or unexpected economic weakness, though current positioning assigns low weight to such outcomes.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$8,211,928Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent above-target inflation, highlighted by April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, anchors the 93.5% market-implied odds of no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. The federal funds rate remains in the 3.5-3.75% range following the June 16-17 decision, supported by a stable 4.3% unemployment rate in May that signals labor market resilience without clear softening. This data-dependent stance keeps trader consensus focused on holding policy steady, as markets price in minimal probability for 25 basis point moves. The upcoming May CPI release on June 10 and any June FOMC communications could shift sentiment if they reveal clearer disinflation or unexpected economic weakness, though current positioning assigns low weight to such outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp