Elevated April 2026 CPI data showing 3.8% year-over-year inflation, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, anchors trader expectations for steady federal funds rates at the July FOMC meeting. Market-implied odds reflect consensus that the central bank will maintain its current policy stance through the near term, consistent with recent communications signaling caution amid above-target price pressures and resilient economic conditions. The June 16-17 FOMC gathering and subsequent May CPI release represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust these probabilities if labor market or inflation trends shift materially. While a 25 basis point move remains possible under unexpected data surprises, the dominant positioning underscores the Fed’s data-dependent approach and limited scope for near-term easing or tightening.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKhông thay đổi 91%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản 5.8%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản 3.4%
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản <1%
$7,120,175 KL.
$7,120,175 KL.
Jul 29, 2026
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản
1%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản
3%
Không thay đổi
91%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản
6%
Tăng 50 điểm cơ bản trở lên
<1%
Không thay đổi 91%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản 5.8%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản 3.4%
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản <1%
$7,120,175 KL.
$7,120,175 KL.
Jul 29, 2026
Giảm hơn 50 điểm cơ bản
$905,154 KL.
1%
Giảm 25 điểm cơ bản
$711,839 KL.
3%
Không thay đổi
$898,379 KL.
91%
Tăng 25 điểm cơ bản
$3,720,344 KL.
6%
Tăng 50 điểm cơ bản trở lên
$884,472 KL.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated April 2026 CPI data showing 3.8% year-over-year inflation, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, anchors trader expectations for steady federal funds rates at the July FOMC meeting. Market-implied odds reflect consensus that the central bank will maintain its current policy stance through the near term, consistent with recent communications signaling caution amid above-target price pressures and resilient economic conditions. The June 16-17 FOMC gathering and subsequent May CPI release represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust these probabilities if labor market or inflation trends shift materially. While a 25 basis point move remains possible under unexpected data surprises, the dominant positioning underscores the Fed’s data-dependent approach and limited scope for near-term easing or tightening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$7,120,175Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated April 2026 CPI data showing 3.8% year-over-year inflation, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, anchors trader expectations for steady federal funds rates at the July FOMC meeting. Market-implied odds reflect consensus that the central bank will maintain its current policy stance through the near term, consistent with recent communications signaling caution amid above-target price pressures and resilient economic conditions. The June 16-17 FOMC gathering and subsequent May CPI release represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust these probabilities if labor market or inflation trends shift materially. While a 25 basis point move remains possible under unexpected data surprises, the dominant positioning underscores the Fed’s data-dependent approach and limited scope for near-term easing or tightening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$7,120,175Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated April 2026 CPI data showing 3.8% year-over-year inflation, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, anchors trader expectations for steady federal funds rates at the July FOMC meeting. Market-implied odds reflect consensus that the central bank will maintain its current policy stance through the near term, consistent with recent communications signaling caution amid above-target price pressures and resilient economic conditions. The June 16-17 FOMC gathering and subsequent May CPI release represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust these probabilities if labor market or inflation trends shift materially. While a 25 basis point move remains possible under unexpected data surprises, the dominant positioning underscores the Fed’s data-dependent approach and limited scope for near-term easing or tightening.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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