Bobby Pulido holds a strong lead in trader consensus for the TX-15 House seat due to consistent polling advantages and his profile as a Tejano music icon with deep local roots in the majority-Hispanic district. Recent September 2026 surveys show Pulido ahead or tied with incumbent Monica De La Cruz, prompting the Cook Political Report to shift its rating to toss-up after earlier lean-Republican assessments. Redistricting changes from 2025 altered the boundaries, incorporating new areas where Pulido has aggressively campaigned at community events like quinceañeras to build turnout among Hispanic voters wary of national party brands. De La Cruz maintains advantages in fundraising and emphasis on border security, yet Pulido’s moderate positioning and celebrity visibility have narrowed the gap from the district’s 18-point Trump margin in 2024. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution date, with both parties viewing the outcome as relevant to House control.