Recent US and Israeli strikes in 2025-2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while eliminating much of its centrifuge capacity and killing senior nuclear personnel. The IAEA's September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards noncompliance, combined with the agency's loss of verification access since early 2026, has left the status of surviving 60% enriched uranium stockpiles unconfirmed. October satellite imagery shows renewed activity at sites like Minzadayi, yet analysts assess that reconstruction at deeper underground complexes such as Pickaxe Mountain would require substantial time before enrichment could resume at scale. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers, alongside ongoing diplomatic stalemate and the risk of additional strikes, though scenarios such as accelerated covert reconstitution or a rapid NPT withdrawal decision could still alter timelines before 2027.