US intelligence assessments as of early May 2026 confirm that US-Israeli airstrikes since February have severely degraded Iran's centrifuge manufacturing, enrichment facilities like Natanz, and at least eight weaponization sites, with no evidence of resumed uranium enrichment since March per Director of National Intelligence testimony. Underground stockpiles of near-weapons-grade material remain bottled up and detectable if accessed, while satellite imagery reveals surviving supply chain elements but no program advancement. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations include Tehran's offers to export enriched uranium and suspend enrichment for five years, though demands diverge. These setbacks extend Iran's estimated breakout time beyond a year, anchoring trader consensus at 90.5% for "No" before 2027, barring undetected rebuilds or leadership shifts post-Khamenei.