US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate that recent airstrikes inflicted limited damage on Iran's nuclear facilities, leaving the breakout timeline to produce a weapon unchanged at roughly one year—consistent with estimates since June 2025 strikes on sites like Natanz. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated in March that military action alone cannot eliminate the program, while Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified Iran has not resumed high-level uranium enrichment. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, with trader odds favoring a deal before 2027 on parallel markets, reflect diplomatic de-escalation signals amid verification challenges. This skin-in-the-game consensus prices low odds of weaponization or testing before year-end, though sudden regime decisions or covert advances could shift probabilities.