Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, mediated by Pakistan, have boosted trader consensus that Tehran will not acquire a nuclear weapon before 2027, amid proposals for a 20-year suspension of uranium enrichment and IAEA-monitored inspections of damaged facilities. U.S. and Israeli strikes since late 2025 severely degraded Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including key enrichment sites at Natanz and Isfahan, with IAEA reports from February confirming a pre-attack stockpile of 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium but no evidence of weaponization activities or radiation spikes post-strikes. President Trump's recent claims of Iranian concessions—such as handing over enriched stockpiles—were rejected by Tehran, yet talks continue toward a ceasefire framework. Unresolved uncertainties include the fate of hidden uranium and potential hardliner pushes, though structural barriers and diplomatic pressures maintain low breakout odds.