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Politika·Mojtaba

Pagbabago ng pamumuno ng Iran sa pamamagitan ng...?

Market icon
Politika·Mojtaba

Pagbabago ng pamumuno ng Iran sa pamamagitan ng...?

$9,344,013 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$9,344,013 Vol.

Polymarket

Abril 30

$3,273,943 Vol.

5%

Mayo 31

$550,752 Vol.

13%

Hunyo 30

$484,501 Vol.

19%

Disyembre 31

$1,803,895 Vol.

33%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the 2026 Iran war triggered by US and Israeli strikes, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in early March, prompting the swift appointment of his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 9. Mojtaba has issued statements via state media but made no public appearances, fueling intelligence reports from April 11 Reuters sources claiming severe facial and leg injuries from the strikes, rendering him potentially incapacitated or under treatment in Qom. Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, insist he remains in excellent health. Traders monitor for proof-of-life visuals, IRGC power consolidation, or ceasefire talks that could stabilize or precipitate further leadership shifts before any market resolution date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$9,344,013
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Amid the 2026 Iran war triggered by US and Israeli strikes, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in early March, prompting the swift appointment of his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor on March 9. Mojtaba has issued statements via state media but made no public appearances, fueling intelligence reports from April 11 Reuters sources claiming severe facial and leg injuries from the strikes, rendering him potentially incapacitated or under treatment in Qom. Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, insist he remains in excellent health. Traders monitor for proof-of-life visuals, IRGC power consolidation, or ceasefire talks that could stabilize or precipitate further leadership shifts before any market resolution date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$9,344,013
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Mar 8, 2026, 10:55 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Pagbabago ng pamumuno ng Iran sa pamamagitan ng...?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 6 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Disyembre 31" sa 33%, sinusundan ng "Hunyo 30" sa 19%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 33¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 33% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Pagbabago ng pamumuno ng Iran sa pamamagitan ng...?" ay naka-generate ng $9.3 million sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Mar 9, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Pagbabago ng pamumuno ng Iran sa pamamagitan ng...?," i-browse ang 6 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Pagbabago ng pamumuno ng Iran sa pamamagitan ng...?" ay "Disyembre 31" sa 33%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 33% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Hunyo 30" sa 19%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Pagbabago ng pamumuno ng Iran sa pamamagitan ng...?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.