The 89.5% trader consensus against regime collapse before 2027 reflects the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 Iran war. Despite U.S.-Israeli strikes, the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and subsequent protests, Iranian security forces retained control, prevented widespread defections, and suppressed unrest through crackdowns. U.S. intelligence assessments from March 2026 consistently found leadership structures intact and public order maintained, while recent June 2026 exchanges over the Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon have not triggered internal fragmentation. Institutional mechanisms, including IRGC cohesion and succession processes, have enabled continuity despite economic strain and military degradation. Traders price in low near-term odds of rapid overthrow absent coordinated elite defections or mass uprisings capable of overcoming these barriers before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateOo
$20,084,770 Vol.
$20,084,770 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oo
$20,084,770 Vol.
$20,084,770 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The 89.5% trader consensus against regime collapse before 2027 reflects the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 Iran war. Despite U.S.-Israeli strikes, the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and subsequent protests, Iranian security forces retained control, prevented widespread defections, and suppressed unrest through crackdowns. U.S. intelligence assessments from March 2026 consistently found leadership structures intact and public order maintained, while recent June 2026 exchanges over the Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon have not triggered internal fragmentation. Institutional mechanisms, including IRGC cohesion and succession processes, have enabled continuity despite economic strain and military degradation. Traders price in low near-term odds of rapid overthrow absent coordinated elite defections or mass uprisings capable of overcoming these barriers before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$20,084,770Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The 89.5% trader consensus against regime collapse before 2027 reflects the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 Iran war. Despite U.S.-Israeli strikes, the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and subsequent protests, Iranian security forces retained control, prevented widespread defections, and suppressed unrest through crackdowns. U.S. intelligence assessments from March 2026 consistently found leadership structures intact and public order maintained, while recent June 2026 exchanges over the Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon have not triggered internal fragmentation. Institutional mechanisms, including IRGC cohesion and succession processes, have enabled continuity despite economic strain and military degradation. Traders price in low near-term odds of rapid overthrow absent coordinated elite defections or mass uprisings capable of overcoming these barriers before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$20,089,857Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 89.5% trader consensus against regime collapse before 2027 reflects the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 Iran war. Despite U.S.-Israeli strikes, the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and subsequent protests, Iranian security forces retained control, prevented widespread defections, and suppressed unrest through crackdowns. U.S. intelligence assessments from March 2026 consistently found leadership structures intact and public order maintained, while recent June 2026 exchanges over the Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon have not triggered internal fragmentation. Institutional mechanisms, including IRGC cohesion and succession processes, have enabled continuity despite economic strain and military degradation. Traders price in low near-term odds of rapid overthrow absent coordinated elite defections or mass uprisings capable of overcoming these barriers before year-end.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong