Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, damaging or destroying above-ground infrastructure and disrupting operations. IAEA inspectors withdrew after the initial strikes, and U.S. intelligence assessments through March 2026 indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. Iranian officials have stated the enriched uranium stockpile remains buried under rubble with no recovery plans, while reconstruction efforts focus on fortification rather than weaponization. Director General Rafael Grossi has noted the absence of a structured nuclear weapons program. These verified developments underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 remains unlikely absent major shifts in enrichment activity or diplomatic posture.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$202,407 Vol.
$202,407 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$202,407 Vol.
$202,407 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, damaging or destroying above-ground infrastructure and disrupting operations. IAEA inspectors withdrew after the initial strikes, and U.S. intelligence assessments through March 2026 indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. Iranian officials have stated the enriched uranium stockpile remains buried under rubble with no recovery plans, while reconstruction efforts focus on fortification rather than weaponization. Director General Rafael Grossi has noted the absence of a structured nuclear weapons program. These verified developments underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 remains unlikely absent major shifts in enrichment activity or diplomatic posture.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$202,407Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, damaging or destroying above-ground infrastructure and disrupting operations. IAEA inspectors withdrew after the initial strikes, and U.S. intelligence assessments through March 2026 indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. Iranian officials have stated the enriched uranium stockpile remains buried under rubble with no recovery plans, while reconstruction efforts focus on fortification rather than weaponization. Director General Rafael Grossi has noted the absence of a structured nuclear weapons program. These verified developments underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 remains unlikely absent major shifts in enrichment activity or diplomatic posture.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$202,407Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, damaging or destroying above-ground infrastructure and disrupting operations. IAEA inspectors withdrew after the initial strikes, and U.S. intelligence assessments through March 2026 indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. Iranian officials have stated the enriched uranium stockpile remains buried under rubble with no recovery plans, while reconstruction efforts focus on fortification rather than weaponization. Director General Rafael Grossi has noted the absence of a structured nuclear weapons program. These verified developments underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 remains unlikely absent major shifts in enrichment activity or diplomatic posture.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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