U.S.-Israeli airstrikes commencing February 28, 2026, severely damaged Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including the Taleghan complex suspected as a test site, per March satellite imagery, anchoring trader consensus at 92.5% against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA February and March reports confirm no resumed proliferation-sensitive activities or radiation spikes post-strikes, despite Iran's denial of access to affected facilities and its 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade but insufficient for immediate detonation without further steps. Ongoing ceasefire diplomacy, highlighted by the UN nuclear chief's April 15 urging of inspections in a potential deal, reinforces de-escalation amid Tehran's doctrinal opposition to nuclear weapons, though rapid reconstruction or leadership shifts could alter low-probability yes scenarios.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$171,320 Vol.
$171,320 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$171,320 Vol.
$171,320 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.U.S.-Israeli airstrikes commencing February 28, 2026, severely damaged Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including the Taleghan complex suspected as a test site, per March satellite imagery, anchoring trader consensus at 92.5% against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA February and March reports confirm no resumed proliferation-sensitive activities or radiation spikes post-strikes, despite Iran's denial of access to affected facilities and its 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade but insufficient for immediate detonation without further steps. Ongoing ceasefire diplomacy, highlighted by the UN nuclear chief's April 15 urging of inspections in a potential deal, reinforces de-escalation amid Tehran's doctrinal opposition to nuclear weapons, though rapid reconstruction or leadership shifts could alter low-probability yes scenarios.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$171,320Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.U.S.-Israeli airstrikes commencing February 28, 2026, severely damaged Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including the Taleghan complex suspected as a test site, per March satellite imagery, anchoring trader consensus at 92.5% against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA February and March reports confirm no resumed proliferation-sensitive activities or radiation spikes post-strikes, despite Iran's denial of access to affected facilities and its 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade but insufficient for immediate detonation without further steps. Ongoing ceasefire diplomacy, highlighted by the UN nuclear chief's April 15 urging of inspections in a potential deal, reinforces de-escalation amid Tehran's doctrinal opposition to nuclear weapons, though rapid reconstruction or leadership shifts could alter low-probability yes scenarios.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$171,320Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S.-Israeli airstrikes commencing February 28, 2026, severely damaged Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including the Taleghan complex suspected as a test site, per March satellite imagery, anchoring trader consensus at 92.5% against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA February and March reports confirm no resumed proliferation-sensitive activities or radiation spikes post-strikes, despite Iran's denial of access to affected facilities and its 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade but insufficient for immediate detonation without further steps. Ongoing ceasefire diplomacy, highlighted by the UN nuclear chief's April 15 urging of inspections in a potential deal, reinforces de-escalation amid Tehran's doctrinal opposition to nuclear weapons, though rapid reconstruction or leadership shifts could alter low-probability yes scenarios.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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