Trader consensus assigns a 91% implied probability to no Iranian nuclear test before 2027, reflecting IAEA safeguards reports through April 2026 showing no diversion of enriched uranium stockpiles—enough for up to 10 weapons—toward active weaponization or testing activities. US intelligence assessments released early May 2026 confirm Iran's timeline to a deliverable nuclear weapon holds at about one year, largely unaffected by prior US and Israeli airstrikes on key facilities. Despite a US Energy Secretary warning on May 14 that Iran is weeks from weapons-grade enrichment capacity, the absence of testing infrastructure signals, seismic preparations, or escalation rhetoric underscores formidable diplomatic pressures, sanctions, and retaliation risks deterring detonation before December 31, 2026.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$192,418 Vol.
$192,418 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$192,418 Vol.
$192,418 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns a 91% implied probability to no Iranian nuclear test before 2027, reflecting IAEA safeguards reports through April 2026 showing no diversion of enriched uranium stockpiles—enough for up to 10 weapons—toward active weaponization or testing activities. US intelligence assessments released early May 2026 confirm Iran's timeline to a deliverable nuclear weapon holds at about one year, largely unaffected by prior US and Israeli airstrikes on key facilities. Despite a US Energy Secretary warning on May 14 that Iran is weeks from weapons-grade enrichment capacity, the absence of testing infrastructure signals, seismic preparations, or escalation rhetoric underscores formidable diplomatic pressures, sanctions, and retaliation risks deterring detonation before December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$192,418Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns a 91% implied probability to no Iranian nuclear test before 2027, reflecting IAEA safeguards reports through April 2026 showing no diversion of enriched uranium stockpiles—enough for up to 10 weapons—toward active weaponization or testing activities. US intelligence assessments released early May 2026 confirm Iran's timeline to a deliverable nuclear weapon holds at about one year, largely unaffected by prior US and Israeli airstrikes on key facilities. Despite a US Energy Secretary warning on May 14 that Iran is weeks from weapons-grade enrichment capacity, the absence of testing infrastructure signals, seismic preparations, or escalation rhetoric underscores formidable diplomatic pressures, sanctions, and retaliation risks deterring detonation before December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$192,418Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns a 91% implied probability to no Iranian nuclear test before 2027, reflecting IAEA safeguards reports through April 2026 showing no diversion of enriched uranium stockpiles—enough for up to 10 weapons—toward active weaponization or testing activities. US intelligence assessments released early May 2026 confirm Iran's timeline to a deliverable nuclear weapon holds at about one year, largely unaffected by prior US and Israeli airstrikes on key facilities. Despite a US Energy Secretary warning on May 14 that Iran is weeks from weapons-grade enrichment capacity, the absence of testing infrastructure signals, seismic preparations, or escalation rhetoric underscores formidable diplomatic pressures, sanctions, and retaliation risks deterring detonation before December 31, 2026.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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