US and Israeli military strikes through mid-2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian uranium enrichment sites including Natanz and Fordow, while leaving substantial uncertainty over surviving 60% enriched material stored in tunnels at Isfahan. Limited IAEA access since 2025 and a September 2026 referral to the UN Security Council underscore verification gaps, yet analysts assess that reconstruction of operational enrichment and weapons-related infrastructure would require extended timelines exceeding the period before 2027. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations emphasize curbs on enrichment capacity as a condition for de-escalation. Recent satellite imagery showing cleanup and activity at the Minzadehei weapons-development site indicates repair efforts, but these remain constrained by prior damage and external pressures. A test would require crossing multiple technical and political thresholds that current conditions render improbable within the resolution window.