Israel’s October 27, 2026, Knesset election serves as the immediate driver for trader positioning on when Netanyahu will leave office, with recent polls showing his Likud-led bloc and the main opposition bloc each falling short of the 61 seats needed for a majority under the proportional representation system. Neither side appears positioned to assemble a stable coalition quickly, raising prospects of a prolonged caretaker government or repeat elections in early 2027 that could extend Netanyahu’s tenure despite public dissatisfaction over the October 7, 2023, security failures and ongoing corruption proceedings. Opposition figures including Gadi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, and Avigdor Liberman have signaled plans to advance term limits and restrictions on criminal defendants serving as prime minister if they gain influence, while Netanyahu emphasizes security threats from Iran and U.S. backing to consolidate his base. Coalition arithmetic, Arab party dynamics, and any post-election negotiations will determine the timeline for any leadership transition.