Farsi Island, a small IRGC naval outpost in the central Persian Gulf, has remained under uninterrupted Iranian military control through mid-September 2026 despite the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in February. U.S. strikes have targeted larger or more strategically positioned islands such as Kharg, Larak, Qeshm, Greater Tunb, and Abu Musa to disrupt oil exports and Strait of Hormuz operations, yet no comparable actions, seizures, or sovereignty shifts involving Farsi have been reported by governments or credible outlets. Its modest size, restricted access, and secondary role relative to chokepoint or export facilities have kept it outside the main theater of operations. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of Iranian control by near-term dates therefore reflect the absence of confirmed escalations or occupation plans specific to the island, while any future resolution would hinge on verifiable military developments or official statements within the market window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$197,823 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
1%
$197,823 Vol.
September 30
$20,553 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small IRGC naval outpost in the central Persian Gulf, has remained under uninterrupted Iranian military control through mid-September 2026 despite the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in February. U.S. strikes have targeted larger or more strategically positioned islands such as Kharg, Larak, Qeshm, Greater Tunb, and Abu Musa to disrupt oil exports and Strait of Hormuz operations, yet no comparable actions, seizures, or sovereignty shifts involving Farsi have been reported by governments or credible outlets. Its modest size, restricted access, and secondary role relative to chokepoint or export facilities have kept it outside the main theater of operations. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of Iranian control by near-term dates therefore reflect the absence of confirmed escalations or occupation plans specific to the island, while any future resolution would hinge on verifiable military developments or official statements within the market window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$197,823Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small IRGC naval outpost in the central Persian Gulf, has remained under uninterrupted Iranian military control through mid-September 2026 despite the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in February. U.S. strikes have targeted larger or more strategically positioned islands such as Kharg, Larak, Qeshm, Greater Tunb, and Abu Musa to disrupt oil exports and Strait of Hormuz operations, yet no comparable actions, seizures, or sovereignty shifts involving Farsi have been reported by governments or credible outlets. Its modest size, restricted access, and secondary role relative to chokepoint or export facilities have kept it outside the main theater of operations. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of Iranian control by near-term dates therefore reflect the absence of confirmed escalations or occupation plans specific to the island, while any future resolution would hinge on verifiable military developments or official statements within the market window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$197,823Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Farsi Island, a small IRGC naval outpost in the central Persian Gulf, has remained under uninterrupted Iranian military control through mid-September 2026 despite the U.S.-Iran conflict that began in February. U.S. strikes have targeted larger or more strategically positioned islands such as Kharg, Larak, Qeshm, Greater Tunb, and Abu Musa to disrupt oil exports and Strait of Hormuz operations, yet no comparable actions, seizures, or sovereignty shifts involving Farsi have been reported by governments or credible outlets. Its modest size, restricted access, and secondary role relative to chokepoint or export facilities have kept it outside the main theater of operations. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of Iranian control by near-term dates therefore reflect the absence of confirmed escalations or occupation plans specific to the island, while any future resolution would hinge on verifiable military developments or official statements within the market window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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