Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island, which it has held since 1971, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps operating bases, missile systems, and infrastructure there despite U.S. precision strikes on port facilities, hangars, and related sites during the 2026 Strait of Hormuz conflict. Recent diplomatic statements from the GCC, Arab League, and UAE have reiterated calls for resolution through negotiation or the International Court of Justice while condemning Iranian construction and military activity, yet no ground operations or shifts in on-island authority have occurred. Traders price a low probability of changed control by late August 2026 because Iran's entrenched presence and regional leverage have withstood prior escalations, with any potential alteration hinging on future multilateral agreements or enforcement actions not currently scheduled.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateAbu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$96,905 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
1%
$96,905 Vol.
September 30
$3,506 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island, which it has held since 1971, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps operating bases, missile systems, and infrastructure there despite U.S. precision strikes on port facilities, hangars, and related sites during the 2026 Strait of Hormuz conflict. Recent diplomatic statements from the GCC, Arab League, and UAE have reiterated calls for resolution through negotiation or the International Court of Justice while condemning Iranian construction and military activity, yet no ground operations or shifts in on-island authority have occurred. Traders price a low probability of changed control by late August 2026 because Iran's entrenched presence and regional leverage have withstood prior escalations, with any potential alteration hinging on future multilateral agreements or enforcement actions not currently scheduled.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 26, 2026, 11:05 AM ET
Volume
$96,905Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 26, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island, which it has held since 1971, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps operating bases, missile systems, and infrastructure there despite U.S. precision strikes on port facilities, hangars, and related sites during the 2026 Strait of Hormuz conflict. Recent diplomatic statements from the GCC, Arab League, and UAE have reiterated calls for resolution through negotiation or the International Court of Justice while condemning Iranian construction and military activity, yet no ground operations or shifts in on-island authority have occurred. Traders price a low probability of changed control by late August 2026 because Iran's entrenched presence and regional leverage have withstood prior escalations, with any potential alteration hinging on future multilateral agreements or enforcement actions not currently scheduled.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$96,905Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 26, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains administrative and military control over Abu Musa Island, which it has held since 1971, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps operating bases, missile systems, and infrastructure there despite U.S. precision strikes on port facilities, hangars, and related sites during the 2026 Strait of Hormuz conflict. Recent diplomatic statements from the GCC, Arab League, and UAE have reiterated calls for resolution through negotiation or the International Court of Justice while condemning Iranian construction and military activity, yet no ground operations or shifts in on-island authority have occurred. Traders price a low probability of changed control by late August 2026 because Iran's entrenched presence and regional leverage have withstood prior escalations, with any potential alteration hinging on future multilateral agreements or enforcement actions not currently scheduled.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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