Houthi forces expanded control over Yemen’s Red Sea coastline and key islands including Perim in September 2026, imposing a maritime embargo on Saudi-linked vessels and conducting strikes that halved daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb. Tanker volumes fell roughly 26 percent below prior averages by early October, though no international authority has declared formal closure and some traffic persists with AIS transponders off. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a counteroffensive in early October claiming recapture of Dhubab and surrounding positions, yet Houthi denials, continued inland missile threats, and disputed territorial control sustain elevated risk. Broader regional escalation tied to Iran has further pressured the chokepoint, with traders monitoring naval operations, pipeline rerouting, and any verified shifts in effective passage.