Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including Mocha and Perim Island in September 2026, positioned the group to threaten shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, prompting selective attacks on vessels and Saudi-linked targets while increasing insurance costs and rerouting incentives. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces have since conducted counteroffensives, with recent advances reported in early November reclaiming key coastal positions and islands. Maritime tracking continues to record daily transits at reduced but non-zero levels, reflecting partial disruption rather than formal closure. Elevated ISPS security levels, ongoing strikes on infrastructure, and UN warnings of volatility sustain risk perceptions, though Houthi statements limit targeting claims to specific categories. Further shifts in ground control, escalation signals, or major incidents could alter transit volumes and market assessments of effective closure.