The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since early April 2026 after Pakistan-mediated talks, remains the central driver of trader sentiment on whether it holds through upcoming deadlines. President Trump has repeatedly extended the pause without a firm end date while rejecting Iranian proposals on nuclear enrichment, ballistic missiles, and Strait of Hormuz access, describing the arrangement as on “life support” amid a continued US naval blockade. Recent diplomatic exchanges show stalled progress, with Tehran insisting on sanctions relief and reparations, and Washington prioritizing verifiable limits on Iran’s nuclear program. Intermittent drone activity and regional spillover risks in Lebanon and the Gulf add pressure, though both sides have signaled willingness to avoid immediate escalation ahead of further talks. Any breakthrough on core demands or a breakdown triggering renewed strikes could shift probabilities sharply before the next resolution window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วใหม่
$89,921 ปริมาณ
May 20
95%
May 21
88%
May 22
79%
May 24
67%
May 27
63%
May 31
52%
June 7
39%
June 15
36%
June 30
34%
July 31
29%
December 31
23%
$89,921 ปริมาณ
May 20
$22,733 ปริมาณ
95%
May 21
$30,304 ปริมาณ
88%
May 22
$13,751 ปริมาณ
79%
May 24
$12,704 ปริมาณ
67%
May 27
$7,386 ปริมาณ
63%
May 31
$516 ปริมาณ
52%
June 7
$3,317 ปริมาณ
39%
June 15
$3,397 ปริมาณ
36%
June 30
$1,816 ปริมาณ
34%
July 31
$5,557 ปริมาณ
29%
December 31
$4,222 ปริมาณ
23%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since early April 2026 after Pakistan-mediated talks, remains the central driver of trader sentiment on whether it holds through upcoming deadlines. President Trump has repeatedly extended the pause without a firm end date while rejecting Iranian proposals on nuclear enrichment, ballistic missiles, and Strait of Hormuz access, describing the arrangement as on “life support” amid a continued US naval blockade. Recent diplomatic exchanges show stalled progress, with Tehran insisting on sanctions relief and reparations, and Washington prioritizing verifiable limits on Iran’s nuclear program. Intermittent drone activity and regional spillover risks in Lebanon and the Gulf add pressure, though both sides have signaled willingness to avoid immediate escalation ahead of further talks. Any breakthrough on core demands or a breakdown triggering renewed strikes could shift probabilities sharply before the next resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$89,921ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since early April 2026 after Pakistan-mediated talks, remains the central driver of trader sentiment on whether it holds through upcoming deadlines. President Trump has repeatedly extended the pause without a firm end date while rejecting Iranian proposals on nuclear enrichment, ballistic missiles, and Strait of Hormuz access, describing the arrangement as on “life support” amid a continued US naval blockade. Recent diplomatic exchanges show stalled progress, with Tehran insisting on sanctions relief and reparations, and Washington prioritizing verifiable limits on Iran’s nuclear program. Intermittent drone activity and regional spillover risks in Lebanon and the Gulf add pressure, though both sides have signaled willingness to avoid immediate escalation ahead of further talks. Any breakthrough on core demands or a breakdown triggering renewed strikes could shift probabilities sharply before the next resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$89,921ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since early April 2026 after Pakistan-mediated talks, remains the central driver of trader sentiment on whether it holds through upcoming deadlines. President Trump has repeatedly extended the pause without a firm end date while rejecting Iranian proposals on nuclear enrichment, ballistic missiles, and Strait of Hormuz access, describing the arrangement as on “life support” amid a continued US naval blockade. Recent diplomatic exchanges show stalled progress, with Tehran insisting on sanctions relief and reparations, and Washington prioritizing verifiable limits on Iran’s nuclear program. Intermittent drone activity and regional spillover risks in Lebanon and the Gulf add pressure, though both sides have signaled willingness to avoid immediate escalation ahead of further talks. Any breakthrough on core demands or a breakdown triggering renewed strikes could shift probabilities sharply before the next resolution window.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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