US targeted military strikes on January 3, 2026, captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on a US narcoterrorism indictment, involving airstrikes on Caracas military sites and special forces extraction without ground troop occupation or territorial control, prompting Polymarket disputes over whether this qualified as an "invasion." Since then, the US has eased oil sanctions, seized tankers tied to Maduro allies, and reportedly expanded military presence to secure energy assets amid a transitional government, but no escalation to full invasion has occurred. Recent diplomatic efforts, including Colombia's March push for sanction exemptions on Venezuelan energy investments, signal de-escalation focus; upcoming factors include Maduro's US trial and regional stability talks, keeping trader consensus on low invasion risk absent major provocations like renewed Venezuelan aggression.