Russian forces have not entered Havrylivka, a small village in Donetsk Oblast near the Lyman front lines, where fighting remains intense but static as of late October 2024. The most recent major development was Russia's capture of nearby settlements like Kurakhove outskirts two weeks ago, prompting Ukrainian reinforcements and drone strikes that have blunted further advances. Traders weigh slow Russian tactical gains against Ukraine's fortified defenses, Western arms deliveries—including recent ATACMS missiles—and harsh weather approaching, which historically slows offensives. Upcoming factors include potential U.S. aid decisions post-election and reports of North Korean troop deployments bolstering Russian manpower, though local terrain and minefields pose significant barriers to rapid entry.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено$13,113 Объем
31 марта
5%
30 апреля
18%
$13,113 Объем
31 марта
5%
30 апреля
18%
Territory will be considered captured if any part of Havrylivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Feb 13, 2026, 1:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Territory will be considered captured if any part of Havrylivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces have not entered Havrylivka, a small village in Donetsk Oblast near the Lyman front lines, where fighting remains intense but static as of late October 2024. The most recent major development was Russia's capture of nearby settlements like Kurakhove outskirts two weeks ago, prompting Ukrainian reinforcements and drone strikes that have blunted further advances. Traders weigh slow Russian tactical gains against Ukraine's fortified defenses, Western arms deliveries—including recent ATACMS missiles—and harsh weather approaching, which historically slows offensives. Upcoming factors include potential U.S. aid decisions post-election and reports of North Korean troop deployments bolstering Russian manpower, though local terrain and minefields pose significant barriers to rapid entry.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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