Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 has solidified its position as the leading large language model on key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and SWE-bench Verified, achieving top scores of around 80% in complex coding tasks, 87% on ARC-AGI reasoning, and unmatched long-context handling up to 1 million tokens—driving trader consensus to a 99.8% implied probability for Anthropic by March 31, 2026. This dominance stems from its February release, which outpaced rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.x and Google's Gemini in multi-turn reasoning and agentic workflows, with no competitive model releases overtaking it in the past month. While the market reflects strong skin-in-the-game agreement, a last-minute surprise launch from xAI, DeepSeek, or another contender, or shifts in leaderboard methodologies, could theoretically challenge this lead before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоУ какой компании лучшая модель ИИ в конце марта?
У какой компании лучшая модель ИИ в конце марта?
Anthropic 99.8%
OpenAI <1%
Google <1%
Baidu <1%
$16,086,211 Объем
$16,086,211 Объем
31 мар. 2026 г.
Anthropic
100%
OpenAI
<1%
<1%
Baidu
<1%
xAI
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 99.8%
OpenAI <1%
Google <1%
Baidu <1%
$16,086,211 Объем
$16,086,211 Объем
31 мар. 2026 г.
Anthropic
$1,655,415 Объем
100%
OpenAI
$1,651,069 Объем
<1%
$1,170,522 Объем
<1%
Baidu
$3,140,129 Объем
<1%
xAI
$1,258,104 Объем
<1%
Moonshot
$1,423,813 Объем
<1%
Meituan
$1,200,321 Объем
<1%
Alibaba
$1,224,652 Объем
<1%
Z.ai
$1,262,181 Объем
<1%
DeepSeek
$1,480,300 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$619,715 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 has solidified its position as the leading large language model on key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and SWE-bench Verified, achieving top scores of around 80% in complex coding tasks, 87% on ARC-AGI reasoning, and unmatched long-context handling up to 1 million tokens—driving trader consensus to a 99.8% implied probability for Anthropic by March 31, 2026. This dominance stems from its February release, which outpaced rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.x and Google's Gemini in multi-turn reasoning and agentic workflows, with no competitive model releases overtaking it in the past month. While the market reflects strong skin-in-the-game agreement, a last-minute surprise launch from xAI, DeepSeek, or another contender, or shifts in leaderboard methodologies, could theoretically challenge this lead before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Объем
$16,086,211Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 has solidified its position as the leading large language model on key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and SWE-bench Verified, achieving top scores of around 80% in complex coding tasks, 87% on ARC-AGI reasoning, and unmatched long-context handling up to 1 million tokens—driving trader consensus to a 99.8% implied probability for Anthropic by March 31, 2026. This dominance stems from its February release, which outpaced rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.x and Google's Gemini in multi-turn reasoning and agentic workflows, with no competitive model releases overtaking it in the past month. While the market reflects strong skin-in-the-game agreement, a last-minute surprise launch from xAI, DeepSeek, or another contender, or shifts in leaderboard methodologies, could theoretically challenge this lead before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Объем
$16,086,211Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 has solidified its position as the leading large language model on key benchmarks like the LMSYS Chatbot Arena and SWE-bench Verified, achieving top scores of around 80% in complex coding tasks, 87% on ARC-AGI reasoning, and unmatched long-context handling up to 1 million tokens—driving trader consensus to a 99.8% implied probability for Anthropic by March 31, 2026. This dominance stems from its February release, which outpaced rivals like OpenAI's GPT-5.x and Google's Gemini in multi-turn reasoning and agentic workflows, with no competitive model releases overtaking it in the past month. While the market reflects strong skin-in-the-game agreement, a last-minute surprise launch from xAI, DeepSeek, or another contender, or shifts in leaderboard methodologies, could theoretically challenge this lead before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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