US-Iran ceasefire prospects remain dim amid the month-long war sparked by US-Israel airstrikes on February 28, with recent diplomatic overtures stalling. On March 25, Trump envoys delivered a 15-point proposal via Pakistan demanding Iran dismantle missile programs and reactors in exchange for sanctions relief, which Tehran rejected but met with a counterproposal for reparations and sovereignty guarantees. President Trump paused strikes on energy infrastructure for 10 days to enable talks, yet airstrikes persist on other targets, thousands of US troops deploy to the Middle East, and Iranian officials warn any ground forces would face retaliation. Upcoming negotiation rounds or escalation signals, including Strait of Hormuz tensions, will likely sway trader consensus on near-term de-escalation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоСША x Иран прекращение огня...?
США x Иран прекращение огня...?
$61,528,082 Объем
31 марта
2%
7 апреля
8%
15 апреля
16%
30 апреля
33%
31 мая
48%
30 июня
59%
31 декабря
75%
$61,528,082 Объем
31 марта
$38,860,226 Объем
2%
7 апреля
$1,406,665 Объем
8%
15 апреля
$5,981,578 Объем
16%
30 апреля
$6,676,307 Объем
33%
31 мая
$2,257,260 Объем
48%
30 июня
$2,347,143 Объем
59%
31 декабря
$510,722 Объем
75%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.US-Iran ceasefire prospects remain dim amid the month-long war sparked by US-Israel airstrikes on February 28, with recent diplomatic overtures stalling. On March 25, Trump envoys delivered a 15-point proposal via Pakistan demanding Iran dismantle missile programs and reactors in exchange for sanctions relief, which Tehran rejected but met with a counterproposal for reparations and sovereignty guarantees. President Trump paused strikes on energy infrastructure for 10 days to enable talks, yet airstrikes persist on other targets, thousands of US troops deploy to the Middle East, and Iranian officials warn any ground forces would face retaliation. Upcoming negotiation rounds or escalation signals, including Strait of Hormuz tensions, will likely sway trader consensus on near-term de-escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Открытие рынка: Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
Объем
$61,528,082Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.US-Iran ceasefire prospects remain dim amid the month-long war sparked by US-Israel airstrikes on February 28, with recent diplomatic overtures stalling. On March 25, Trump envoys delivered a 15-point proposal via Pakistan demanding Iran dismantle missile programs and reactors in exchange for sanctions relief, which Tehran rejected but met with a counterproposal for reparations and sovereignty guarantees. President Trump paused strikes on energy infrastructure for 10 days to enable talks, yet airstrikes persist on other targets, thousands of US troops deploy to the Middle East, and Iranian officials warn any ground forces would face retaliation. Upcoming negotiation rounds or escalation signals, including Strait of Hormuz tensions, will likely sway trader consensus on near-term de-escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Объем
$61,528,082Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Предложенный исход: Нет
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: Нет
US-Iran ceasefire prospects remain dim amid the month-long war sparked by US-Israel airstrikes on February 28, with recent diplomatic overtures stalling. On March 25, Trump envoys delivered a 15-point proposal via Pakistan demanding Iran dismantle missile programs and reactors in exchange for sanctions relief, which Tehran rejected but met with a counterproposal for reparations and sovereignty guarantees. President Trump paused strikes on energy infrastructure for 10 days to enable talks, yet airstrikes persist on other targets, thousands of US troops deploy to the Middle East, and Iranian officials warn any ground forces would face retaliation. Upcoming negotiation rounds or escalation signals, including Strait of Hormuz tensions, will likely sway trader consensus on near-term de-escalation.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы