President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to prepare for resuming nuclear weapons testing after a 33-year voluntary moratorium—prompted by reported Russian and Chinese activities—remains the pivotal driver of trader consensus on U.S. nuclear test markets. State Department officials confirmed in February 2026 plans for underground tests at the Nevada National Security Site on an "equal footing" with adversaries, abstaining from atmospheric megaton blasts. March reports from senior officials indicate active preparations amid heightened geopolitical tensions, including U.S.-Iran frictions, though no explosive test has been officially verified as of early April. Traders monitor NNSA announcements and congressional funding for near-term catalysts that could trigger resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЯдерное испытание США...?
Ядерное испытание США...?
$610,219 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
30 июня 2026 года
50%
September 30, 2026
50%
December 31, 2026
51%
$610,219 Объем
30 июня 2026 года
$0 Объем
50%
September 30, 2026
$0 Объем
50%
December 31, 2026
$0 Объем
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to prepare for resuming nuclear weapons testing after a 33-year voluntary moratorium—prompted by reported Russian and Chinese activities—remains the pivotal driver of trader consensus on U.S. nuclear test markets. State Department officials confirmed in February 2026 plans for underground tests at the Nevada National Security Site on an "equal footing" with adversaries, abstaining from atmospheric megaton blasts. March reports from senior officials indicate active preparations amid heightened geopolitical tensions, including U.S.-Iran frictions, though no explosive test has been officially verified as of early April. Traders monitor NNSA announcements and congressional funding for near-term catalysts that could trigger resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Объем
$610,219Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to prepare for resuming nuclear weapons testing after a 33-year voluntary moratorium—prompted by reported Russian and Chinese activities—remains the pivotal driver of trader consensus on U.S. nuclear test markets. State Department officials confirmed in February 2026 plans for underground tests at the Nevada National Security Site on an "equal footing" with adversaries, abstaining from atmospheric megaton blasts. March reports from senior officials indicate active preparations amid heightened geopolitical tensions, including U.S.-Iran frictions, though no explosive test has been officially verified as of early April. Traders monitor NNSA announcements and congressional funding for near-term catalysts that could trigger resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$610,219Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to the Pentagon to prepare for resuming nuclear weapons testing after a 33-year voluntary moratorium—prompted by reported Russian and Chinese activities—remains the pivotal driver of trader consensus on U.S. nuclear test markets. State Department officials confirmed in February 2026 plans for underground tests at the Nevada National Security Site on an "equal footing" with adversaries, abstaining from atmospheric megaton blasts. March reports from senior officials indicate active preparations amid heightened geopolitical tensions, including U.S.-Iran frictions, though no explosive test has been officially verified as of early April. Traders monitor NNSA announcements and congressional funding for near-term catalysts that could trigger resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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