The United States has upheld a voluntary nuclear test moratorium since its final underground explosion in 1992, relying on subcritical experiments and computer simulations to certify its arsenal under the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Driving recent trader focus, Under Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno testified on March 24, 2026, before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that preparations are advancing at the Nevada National Security Site to potentially resume underground yield-producing tests, citing covert Russian and Chinese activities that disadvantage U.S. warhead development. President Trump's late-2025 directives and a December defense authorization bill enabling tests heighten speculation, though no timeline exists amid technical, political, and diplomatic hurdles; ongoing assessments could signal shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЯдерное испытание США...?
Ядерное испытание США...?
$610,219 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
30 июня 2026 года
52%
September 30, 2026
51%
December 31, 2026
51%
$610,219 Объем
30 июня 2026 года
$0 Объем
52%
September 30, 2026
$0 Объем
51%
December 31, 2026
$0 Объем
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has upheld a voluntary nuclear test moratorium since its final underground explosion in 1992, relying on subcritical experiments and computer simulations to certify its arsenal under the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Driving recent trader focus, Under Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno testified on March 24, 2026, before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that preparations are advancing at the Nevada National Security Site to potentially resume underground yield-producing tests, citing covert Russian and Chinese activities that disadvantage U.S. warhead development. President Trump's late-2025 directives and a December defense authorization bill enabling tests heighten speculation, though no timeline exists amid technical, political, and diplomatic hurdles; ongoing assessments could signal shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Объем
$610,219Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has upheld a voluntary nuclear test moratorium since its final underground explosion in 1992, relying on subcritical experiments and computer simulations to certify its arsenal under the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Driving recent trader focus, Under Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno testified on March 24, 2026, before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that preparations are advancing at the Nevada National Security Site to potentially resume underground yield-producing tests, citing covert Russian and Chinese activities that disadvantage U.S. warhead development. President Trump's late-2025 directives and a December defense authorization bill enabling tests heighten speculation, though no timeline exists amid technical, political, and diplomatic hurdles; ongoing assessments could signal shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$610,219Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has upheld a voluntary nuclear test moratorium since its final underground explosion in 1992, relying on subcritical experiments and computer simulations to certify its arsenal under the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Driving recent trader focus, Under Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno testified on March 24, 2026, before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that preparations are advancing at the Nevada National Security Site to potentially resume underground yield-producing tests, citing covert Russian and Chinese activities that disadvantage U.S. warhead development. President Trump's late-2025 directives and a December defense authorization bill enabling tests heighten speculation, though no timeline exists amid technical, political, and diplomatic hurdles; ongoing assessments could signal shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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