The Trump administration's recent signals on nuclear policy, including a top official's March 24 statement not ruling out resumption of underground explosive tests, have heightened trader focus amid U.S. intelligence accusations of Chinese test preparations and Russia's arsenal modernization. The voluntary testing moratorium, in place since 1992 and unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), faces pressure from stockpile stewardship needs at sites like Nevada National Security Site, managed by the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). No test date has been announced, but FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act funding and potential executive actions could accelerate decisions, with geopolitical tensions in Asia-Pacific as key catalysts for any shift.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоЯдерное испытание США...?
Ядерное испытание США...?
$610,957 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
30 июня 2026 года
2%
September 30, 2026
8%
December 31, 2026
23%
$610,957 Объем
30 июня 2026 года
$0 Объем
2%
September 30, 2026
$122 Объем
8%
December 31, 2026
$628 Объем
23%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration's recent signals on nuclear policy, including a top official's March 24 statement not ruling out resumption of underground explosive tests, have heightened trader focus amid U.S. intelligence accusations of Chinese test preparations and Russia's arsenal modernization. The voluntary testing moratorium, in place since 1992 and unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), faces pressure from stockpile stewardship needs at sites like Nevada National Security Site, managed by the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). No test date has been announced, but FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act funding and potential executive actions could accelerate decisions, with geopolitical tensions in Asia-Pacific as key catalysts for any shift.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Объем
$610,957Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration's recent signals on nuclear policy, including a top official's March 24 statement not ruling out resumption of underground explosive tests, have heightened trader focus amid U.S. intelligence accusations of Chinese test preparations and Russia's arsenal modernization. The voluntary testing moratorium, in place since 1992 and unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), faces pressure from stockpile stewardship needs at sites like Nevada National Security Site, managed by the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). No test date has been announced, but FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act funding and potential executive actions could accelerate decisions, with geopolitical tensions in Asia-Pacific as key catalysts for any shift.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$610,957Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration's recent signals on nuclear policy, including a top official's March 24 statement not ruling out resumption of underground explosive tests, have heightened trader focus amid U.S. intelligence accusations of Chinese test preparations and Russia's arsenal modernization. The voluntary testing moratorium, in place since 1992 and unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), faces pressure from stockpile stewardship needs at sites like Nevada National Security Site, managed by the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). No test date has been announced, but FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act funding and potential executive actions could accelerate decisions, with geopolitical tensions in Asia-Pacific as key catalysts for any shift.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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