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Геополитика·Трамп

Войска США входят в Иран через..?

Market icon
Геополитика·Трамп

Войска США входят в Иран через..?

$103,164,005 Объем

3 мар. 2026 г.
Polymarket

$103,164,005 Объем

Polymarket

31 марта

$71,761,036 Объем

<1%

30 апреля

$20,456,151 Объем

66%

31 декабря

$8,873,245 Объем

76%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid the ongoing US-Israel airstrikes campaign against Iran—initiated February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear facilities, ballistic missiles, leadership, and recently expanding to non-military sites—Iran launched missiles at Israel and Gulf states hours ago, with explosions reported around Tehran. President Trump stated US forces will strike "very hard" over the next two-to-three weeks, claiming core strategic objectives near completion despite unrelenting Iranian retaliation that has killed several US troops at regional bases. Pentagon deployments of Marines, 82nd Airborne, and additional ground forces to the Middle East, building over 50,000 troops in theater, fuel trader focus on potential escalation to boots-on-the-ground operations, though none have entered Iranian territory. Upcoming diplomatic signals or intensified exchanges could tip probabilities.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$103,164,005
Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Предложенный исход: Нет

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: Нет

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid the ongoing US-Israel airstrikes campaign against Iran—initiated February 28, 2026, targeting nuclear facilities, ballistic missiles, leadership, and recently expanding to non-military sites—Iran launched missiles at Israel and Gulf states hours ago, with explosions reported around Tehran. President Trump stated US forces will strike "very hard" over the next two-to-three weeks, claiming core strategic objectives near completion despite unrelenting Iranian retaliation that has killed several US troops at regional bases. Pentagon deployments of Marines, 82nd Airborne, and additional ground forces to the Middle East, building over 50,000 troops in theater, fuel trader focus on potential escalation to boots-on-the-ground operations, though none have entered Iranian territory. Upcoming diplomatic signals or intensified exchanges could tip probabilities.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$103,164,005
Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Предложенный исход: Нет

Спор отсутствует

Окончательный исход: Нет

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

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Текущий фаворит для «Войска США входят в Иран через..?» — «31 декабря» с 76%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 76%. Следующий ближайший исход — «30 апреля» с 66%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

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