Market icon
Геополитика·Ормузский пролив

США сопровождают коммерческий корабль через Ормуз...?

Market icon
Геополитика·Ормузский пролив

США сопровождают коммерческий корабль через Ормуз...?

$1,993,919 Объем

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$1,993,919 Объем

Polymarket

31 марта

$1,810,128 Объем

2%

15 апреля

$26,762 Объем

16%

30 апреля

$157,089 Объем

32%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit. A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit. A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit. A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects low implied probability for the US Navy escorting a commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, driven by the absence of any verified operations despite President Trump's March 3 directive for escorts "as soon as possible" amid Iranian drone and missile attacks slashing tanker transits from over 100 daily to under 20. A false Energy Department claim of an escort was swiftly deleted and denied by the White House, with CENTCOM Commander Brad Cooper emphasizing efforts to degrade Iran's capabilities rather than direct protection. Pentagon officials cited logistical hurdles and risks, echoing 1987's Operation Earnest Will, while shipping firms were told escorts unavailable; the March 31 deadline looms with no scheduled convoys announced.

Trader consensus reflects low implied probability for the US Navy escorting a commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, driven by the absence of any verified operations despite President Trump's March 3 directive for escorts "as soon as possible" amid Iranian drone and missile attacks slashing tanker transits from over 100 daily to under 20. A false Energy Department claim of an escort was swiftly deleted and denied by the White House, with CENTCOM Commander Brad Cooper emphasizing efforts to degrade Iran's capabilities rather than direct protection. Pentagon officials cited logistical hurdles and risks, echoing 1987's Operation Earnest Will, while shipping firms were told escorts unavailable; the March 31 deadline looms with no scheduled convoys announced.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit. A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit. A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States military or federal government officially announces that it will escort, is escorting, or has escorted, any commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Escort refers to United States military or government personnel accompanying or actively providing protective overwatch for a specific commercial vessel or convoy during its transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Personnel do not need to be aboard the commercial vessel to qualify. Escort may occur from a separate naval vessel or from aerial assets assigned to accompany or protect the transit. A qualifying announcement must be definitive. Suggestions, unconfirmed reports, or other non-definitive statements will not count. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that United States military or government personnel have escorted at least one commercial vessel on a journey through the Strait of Hormuz will also be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government and military of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects low implied probability for the US Navy escorting a commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, driven by the absence of any verified operations despite President Trump's March 3 directive for escorts "as soon as possible" amid Iranian drone and missile attacks slashing tanker transits from over 100 daily to under 20. A false Energy Department claim of an escort was swiftly deleted and denied by the White House, with CENTCOM Commander Brad Cooper emphasizing efforts to degrade Iran's capabilities rather than direct protection. Pentagon officials cited logistical hurdles and risks, echoing 1987's Operation Earnest Will, while shipping firms were told escorts unavailable; the March 31 deadline looms with no scheduled convoys announced.

Trader consensus reflects low implied probability for the US Navy escorting a commercial ship through the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, driven by the absence of any verified operations despite President Trump's March 3 directive for escorts "as soon as possible" amid Iranian drone and missile attacks slashing tanker transits from over 100 daily to under 20. A false Energy Department claim of an escort was swiftly deleted and denied by the White House, with CENTCOM Commander Brad Cooper emphasizing efforts to degrade Iran's capabilities rather than direct protection. Pentagon officials cited logistical hurdles and risks, echoing 1987's Operation Earnest Will, while shipping firms were told escorts unavailable; the March 31 deadline looms with no scheduled convoys announced.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«США сопровождают коммерческий корабль через Ормуз...?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 3 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «30 апреля» с 32%, за ним следует «15 апреля» с 16%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 32¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 32%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «США сопровождают коммерческий корабль через Ормуз...?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $2 million с момента запуска рынка Mar 11, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «США сопровождают коммерческий корабль через Ормуз...?», просмотри 3 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «США сопровождают коммерческий корабль через Ормуз...?» — «30 апреля» с 32%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 32%. Следующий ближайший исход — «15 апреля» с 16%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «США сопровождают коммерческий корабль через Ормуз...?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.