A federal appeals court split has emerged over whether the Commodity Futures Trading Commission holds exclusive jurisdiction under the Commodity Exchange Act to regulate sports event contracts—binary prediction markets on outcomes like game winners—preempting state gambling laws. On April 6, the Third Circuit upheld a preliminary injunction for platform Kalshi against New Jersey regulators in a 2-1 ruling, classifying such contracts as regulated swaps and marking the first appellate decision favoring federal preemption; this contrasts with prior district court losses for platforms elsewhere. No qualifying certiorari petitions have been filed yet, with 90 days from circuit judgments to petition SCOTUS. Traders weigh low near-term odds for Supreme Court review by July amid procedural timelines, with potential shifts from upcoming Ninth and Fourth Circuit rulings expected in spring 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоSCOTUS принимает контракт на спортивное мероприятие к...?
SCOTUS принимает контракт на спортивное мероприятие к...?
$935,917 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
31 июля
14%
31 декабря
42%
$935,917 Объем
31 июля
$929,259 Объем
14%
31 декабря
$6,658 Объем
42%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. A federal appeals court split has emerged over whether the Commodity Futures Trading Commission holds exclusive jurisdiction under the Commodity Exchange Act to regulate sports event contracts—binary prediction markets on outcomes like game winners—preempting state gambling laws. On April 6, the Third Circuit upheld a preliminary injunction for platform Kalshi against New Jersey regulators in a 2-1 ruling, classifying such contracts as regulated swaps and marking the first appellate decision favoring federal preemption; this contrasts with prior district court losses for platforms elsewhere. No qualifying certiorari petitions have been filed yet, with 90 days from circuit judgments to petition SCOTUS. Traders weigh low near-term odds for Supreme Court review by July amid procedural timelines, with potential shifts from upcoming Ninth and Fourth Circuit rulings expected in spring 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
Объем
$935,917Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting. A federal appeals court split has emerged over whether the Commodity Futures Trading Commission holds exclusive jurisdiction under the Commodity Exchange Act to regulate sports event contracts—binary prediction markets on outcomes like game winners—preempting state gambling laws. On April 6, the Third Circuit upheld a preliminary injunction for platform Kalshi against New Jersey regulators in a 2-1 ruling, classifying such contracts as regulated swaps and marking the first appellate decision favoring federal preemption; this contrasts with prior district court losses for platforms elsewhere. No qualifying certiorari petitions have been filed yet, with 90 days from circuit judgments to petition SCOTUS. Traders weigh low near-term odds for Supreme Court review by July amid procedural timelines, with potential shifts from upcoming Ninth and Fourth Circuit rulings expected in spring 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities.
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
Объем
$935,917Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A federal appeals court split has emerged over whether the Commodity Futures Trading Commission holds exclusive jurisdiction under the Commodity Exchange Act to regulate sports event contracts—binary prediction markets on outcomes like game winners—preempting state gambling laws. On April 6, the Third Circuit upheld a preliminary injunction for platform Kalshi against New Jersey regulators in a 2-1 ruling, classifying such contracts as regulated swaps and marking the first appellate decision favoring federal preemption; this contrasts with prior district court losses for platforms elsewhere. No qualifying certiorari petitions have been filed yet, with 90 days from circuit judgments to petition SCOTUS. Traders weigh low near-term odds for Supreme Court review by July amid procedural timelines, with potential shifts from upcoming Ninth and Fourth Circuit rulings expected in spring 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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