Israel's firm rejection of the International Criminal Court's jurisdiction, coupled with Prime Minister Netanyahu's ongoing leadership and lack of domestic arrest warrants, drives the 99.3% "No" consensus on his arrest by March 31. The ICC's November 2024 warrant for alleged war crimes in Gaza remains unenforceable in Israel, which is not a Rome Statute signatory and bars extradition of nationals. Netanyahu continues court appearances in separate corruption trials without custody, facing no immediate detention risks. Recent coalition stability and diplomatic pushback against ICC actions reinforce trader confidence. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden government collapse, conviction in graft cases triggering custody, or unprecedented travel to an ICC-enforcing state, though these appear improbable absent major upheaval.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоНетаньяху арестован до 31 марта?
Нетаньяху арестован до 31 марта?
Да
$101,302 Объем
$101,302 Объем
Да
$101,302 Объем
$101,302 Объем
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 7, 2025, 5:20 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's firm rejection of the International Criminal Court's jurisdiction, coupled with Prime Minister Netanyahu's ongoing leadership and lack of domestic arrest warrants, drives the 99.3% "No" consensus on his arrest by March 31. The ICC's November 2024 warrant for alleged war crimes in Gaza remains unenforceable in Israel, which is not a Rome Statute signatory and bars extradition of nationals. Netanyahu continues court appearances in separate corruption trials without custody, facing no immediate detention risks. Recent coalition stability and diplomatic pushback against ICC actions reinforce trader confidence. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden government collapse, conviction in graft cases triggering custody, or unprecedented travel to an ICC-enforcing state, though these appear improbable absent major upheaval.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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