Market icon
Геополитика·россия

Российский удар по Польше с помощью...?

Market icon
Геополитика·россия

Российский удар по Польше с помощью...?

$1,884,267 Объем

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$1,884,267 Объем

Polymarket

30 июня 2026 года

$35,598 Объем

5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 9 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,884,267
Дата окончания
Dec 31, 2025
Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, 9 PM ET and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil or any official Polish embassy or consulate between September 9, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian military forces that impact Polish ground territory or any official Polish embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Polish soil is hit by a Russian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Polish territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Russian ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Trader consensus assigns low implied probability to a Russian strike on Poland, anchored by Moscow's restraint in avoiding direct NATO confrontation amid the Ukraine war. Key drivers include frequent Russian drone and missile incursions near Polish airspace—such as the August 26 violation during a Kyiv-targeted barrage—prompting Warsaw's diplomatic protests and heightened border fortifications. No confirmed intentional attacks have materialized, with the 2022 Przewodów incident attributed to Ukrainian defenses. Poland's robust NATO air policing and transit of Western arms to Ukraine fuel tensions, but Article 5 deterrence dominates sentiment. Watch winter Ukraine offensives and NATO summits for potential volatility.

Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Российский удар по Польше с помощью...?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 3 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «30 июня 2026 года» с 5%, за ним следует «30 сентября» с 0%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 5¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 5%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Российский удар по Польше с помощью...?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $1.9 million с момента запуска рынка Sep 9, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Российский удар по Польше с помощью...?», просмотри 3 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Это очень открытый рынок. Текущий лидер для «Российский удар по Польше с помощью...?» — «30 июня 2026 года» всего с 5%, а «30 сентября» близко позади с 0%. Поскольку ни один исход не доминирует, трейдеры видят это как крайне неопределённую ситуацию, что может создавать уникальные торговые возможности. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени, так что добавь эту страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Российский удар по Польше с помощью...?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.