Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95% implied probability that military action against Iran continues through March 31, reflecting the absence of de-escalation signals following Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian military sites near Isfahan on October 26. That calibrated response to Iran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage avoided nuclear or oil facilities, prompting Iranian leaders to vow retaliation while emphasizing restraint to prevent wider war. Ongoing proxy conflicts—Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon, Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, and strikes on Iranian-backed militias in Syria and Iraq—sustain low-level engagements, with no ceasefire negotiations or diplomatic breakthroughs in the past week. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Iranian counterstrike, US election outcomes altering sanctions or support for Israel, or UN-mediated de-escalation talks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · ОбновленоВоенные действия до 31 марта 95%
31 марта 2.0%
30 марта 1.6%
29 марта 1.1%
$2,544,383 Объем
$2,544,383 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
26 марта
<1%
27 марта
<1%
28 марта
1%
29 марта
1%
30 марта
2%
31 марта
2%
Военные действия до 31 марта
95%
Военные действия до 31 марта 95%
31 марта 2.0%
30 марта 1.6%
29 марта 1.1%
$2,544,383 Объем
$2,544,383 Объем
Mar 31, 2026
26 марта
$326,382 Объем
<1%
27 марта
$328,169 Объем
<1%
28 марта
$305,243 Объем
1%
29 марта
$265,752 Объем
1%
30 марта
$273,713 Объем
2%
31 марта
$359,804 Объем
2%
Военные действия до 31 марта
$552,701 Объем
95%
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95% implied probability that military action against Iran continues through March 31, reflecting the absence of de-escalation signals following Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian military sites near Isfahan on October 26. That calibrated response to Iran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage avoided nuclear or oil facilities, prompting Iranian leaders to vow retaliation while emphasizing restraint to prevent wider war. Ongoing proxy conflicts—Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon, Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, and strikes on Iranian-backed militias in Syria and Iraq—sustain low-level engagements, with no ceasefire negotiations or diplomatic breakthroughs in the past week. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Iranian counterstrike, US election outcomes altering sanctions or support for Israel, or UN-mediated de-escalation talks.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Объем
$2,544,383Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95% implied probability that military action against Iran continues through March 31, reflecting the absence of de-escalation signals following Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian military sites near Isfahan on October 26. That calibrated response to Iran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage avoided nuclear or oil facilities, prompting Iranian leaders to vow retaliation while emphasizing restraint to prevent wider war. Ongoing proxy conflicts—Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon, Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, and strikes on Iranian-backed militias in Syria and Iraq—sustain low-level engagements, with no ceasefire negotiations or diplomatic breakthroughs in the past week. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Iranian counterstrike, US election outcomes altering sanctions or support for Israel, or UN-mediated de-escalation talks.
This market will resolve according to the next date Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30), on which neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred. If strikes could be verified under the prior rule for each listed day, this market will resolve to "Military action continues through March 31."
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$2,544,383Дата окончания
Mar 31, 2026Открытие рынка
Mar 11, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 95% implied probability that military action against Iran continues through March 31, reflecting the absence of de-escalation signals following Israel's limited airstrikes on Iranian military sites near Isfahan on October 26. That calibrated response to Iran's October 1 ballistic missile barrage avoided nuclear or oil facilities, prompting Iranian leaders to vow retaliation while emphasizing restraint to prevent wider war. Ongoing proxy conflicts—Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon, Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, and strikes on Iranian-backed militias in Syria and Iraq—sustain low-level engagements, with no ceasefire negotiations or diplomatic breakthroughs in the past week. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major Iranian counterstrike, US election outcomes altering sanctions or support for Israel, or UN-mediated de-escalation talks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket · Обновлено
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